Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
200 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across the
area early this morning. Stratus is developing behind the storms
and this is expected to continue as the storms continue northeast.
If winds were to become light enough, there is the potential for
patchy fog especially where it has rained, but as winds are not
currently forecast to be quite light enough, have left it out of
the forecast. I still wanted to mention it, though.

We also may see some very brief near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions across our Kansas counties as drier air moves
in ahead of the cold front. This may not materialize with the rain
moving across many of our Kansas counties this morning, however.

A strong negatively tilted trough will move across the central
Plains today. There will be plenty of moisture with dewpoints in
the 50s and 60s across the area, instability with MUCAPE values
over 2000 J/kg over western portions of the CWA and potentially
in the 3000-3500 J/kg range over central and eastern portions of
the CWA. Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop mid-
afternoon, with forecast soundings indicating very large hail
expected to be the biggest threat. Additionally, a few tornadoes
are possible with these storms...really, anywhere they develop
this afternoon has a chance, but the greatest concern for any
stronger tornado will likely be north and east of the low pressure
center where helicity, CAPE, and dewpoints are going to be the
greatest. Right now, that looks to be approximately from the tri-
cities area in Nebraska north and east within the Hastings
forecast area. The time frame for the severe threat is expected to
be from mid- afternoon through late evening before heading east
out of our forecast area.

After the cold front moves through, winds will switch to the
northwest and increase late Friday night into Saturday. The
strongest winds will likely occur late Saturday morning to
Saturday evening, when gusts will likely approach or exceed 60
mph, especially along and west of Highway 281. Because of this,
we have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning.

Next week looks cooler with potentially several period of rain
chances, and models are becoming more consistent with this trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Main issues include a dynamic system moving through the area today
that may produce some severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are possible. An isolated tornado is not out of the
question, but starting to look a bit more likely just to the south
near the state line. Wind will eventually shift to the northwest
toward 00Z behind a cold front with strong and gusty winds
expected. Ceilings will eventually lower behind the front into the
lower MVFR/IFR range. Models have been rather consistent with this
scenario. Wind direction may be the toughest to pinpoint for the
first 9 hours of the forecast as the surface low tracks northeast,
just south of the terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
821 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
821 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe weather is expected across much of south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas late this afternoon and evening. Portions
of the area are included in a moderate risk for severe weather
with much of the rest of the area in an enhanced risk.

Most of the storm activity will occur between 3 PM and 11 PM. The
main hazard will be damaging wind gusts over 75 mph and large hail
in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Tornadoes are also possible,
especially between 5 PM and 8 PM. All of the storms will
generally move from southwest to northeast at speeds of 40 mph or
greater. There is also a risk of isolated flooding, especially
for areas which received significant rainfall Thursday night.

In addition on Friday afternoon, the combination of gusty winds
and low relative humidity may lead to near-critical to briefly
critical fire danger for much of north central Kansas.

Finally, as thunderstorms exit the area, strong northwest winds
will enter the outlook area late Friday night into Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong northwest winds will overtake the entire outlook area late
Friday night into especially Saturday daytime. Sustained speeds
of 30 to 40 MPH appear likely Saturday, accompanied by gusts of
50 to 60 MPH. A few gusts may be even stronger. A High Wind
Warning is in effect during the daytime and evening hours Saturday
for counties along and west of Highway 281, which stand the best
chance of seeing gusts around 60 MPH or greater.

Additional chances for thunderstorms enter the picture Sunday
night, Monday, and again Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any possible instances of large
hail, strong thunderstorm winds or localized flooding that might
occur overnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             4 S ARAPAHOE            40.25N 99.90W
04/29/2022  E2.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL STILL FALLING AT ARAPAHOE GOLF COURSE.
            GOLF BALLS WITH A FEW EGGS (SIZED) MIXED IN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
417 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW GOTHENBURG         40.95N 100.19W
04/29/2022  M50 MPH          DAWSON             NE   MESONET

            NEBRASKA MESONET SITE.

&&

PFANNKUCH