Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1012 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Main focus of this forecast update was to try to capture the
current extent of rainfall and thunderstorms in the PoPs and
updated the overnight hours, mainly by blending with the HRRR for
the next few hours. Also updated the temperatures where
cooling has occurred due to the rainfall. A few thunderstorms are
still possible across the area into the early morning hours
Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

A near-stationary boundary might be the focus of some late
afternoon and evening convection. With little in the way of a cap,
we will have a scenario where deep layer shear will be marginal,
near 30 KTS or so, but MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg this
afternoon/evening will be enough for some pulse-like marginal
severe storms at least. We might even get a brief spin-up along
the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear
environment.

Strong signal for low stratus this morning, and perhaps some
reduced visibility.

We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire
weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air
surges north ahead of the cold front.

Strong negatively tiled shortwave trough heads into the
northern/central Plains tomorrow. Hi- res CAMS indicate that as
the surface low tracks northeast across the CWA tomorrow, the
triple point may wind up being near the tri- cities, putting
tornado threat as far north as the tri- city area for Friday
afternoon/early evening time frame. Plenty of moisture wraps
around into the triple point region and could be a sneaky busy day
for severe weather. Even storms farther west look like potentially
producers of large hail and quite strong severe gusts. The window
for severe activity will be relatively short-lived from mid
afternoon to mid evening time frame before heading east of the
area by late evening.

Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high
wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest,
especially near and west of tri-cities. Saturday looks like a
quite windy and potentially damp day with wrap around moisture on
the backside of the low. Signals from models still point toward
at least marginally high wind with gusts near 60 mph for Saturday.

Next week looks rather cool with potentially several periods of
meaningful rain chances, with increasing consistency with this
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

VCTS could be in the area for much of the night as storm fire near
a boundary this evening. Some storms contain strong to severe wind
and large hail. The severe threat should decrease with time by
overnight, but could become more widespread severe by afternoon
Friday. One caveat for this forecast is a low-level stratus layer
consistently forecast to develop overnight tonight and persist
into Friday morning, with the possibility of elevated
thunderstorms nearby overnight and in the early morning. More
surface based convection is possible by Friday afternoon at both
terminals, especially toward KGRI. Some MVFR visibility is also
possible along with the stratus developing, and LIFR stratus is
possible for a short time, especially between 09Z and 14Z Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
925 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
925 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Although many places will remain dry tonight, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity remains possible almost anywhere
in the outlook area through sunrise Friday. Most storms will be
on the weaker side, but a few strong to severe storms remain
possible, especially through around midnight. The main threat with
any severe storms will be large hail of quarter up to perhaps
golf ball size, along with wind gusts to around 60 MPH. In
addition, localized pockets of heavy rain will occur, with the
very few places that receive at least 2 to 3 inches possibly
having short-term flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday into Friday night brings an overall-better chance for more
widespread thunderstorm activity, including a greater chance for
severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The
majority of the outlook area is under a Slight Risk for severe
storms, with the most favored time frame being 3 to 11 PM. The
main hazards with the most intense storms will be large hail to
at least golf ball size, damaging wind gusts up to around 70 MPH,
and the possibility for a few tornadoes, especially with any
storms that develop near and especially south and east of the
Nebraska Tri Cities.

In addition on Friday afternoon, the combination of gusty winds
and low relative humidity may lead to near-critical to briefly
critical fire danger in portions of north central Kansas,
particularly within Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties

Finally, as thunderstorms exit the picture, strong northwest
winds will overtake the entire outlook area late Friday night
into especially Saturday daytime. Sustained speeds of 30 to 40
MPH appear likely Saturday, accompanied by gusts of 50 to 60 MPH.
A High Wind Watch is in effect during the daytime and evening
hours Saturday for counties along and west of Highway 281, which
stand the best chance of seeing gusts around 60 MPH.

Additional chances for thunderstorms enter the picture Sunday
night into Monday, and again Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any possible instances of large
hail, strong thunderstorm winds or localized flooding that might
occur overnight. .

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1151 PM CDT THU APR 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             EDISON                  40.28N 99.78W
04/28/2022  E1.25 INCH       FURNAS             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1035 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW ALMA              40.01N 99.39W
04/28/2022  M3.96 INCH       HARLAN             NE   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 630 PM. STILL
            RAINING. UNOFFICIAL PERSONAL WEATHER
            STATION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             2 SW HOLBROOK           40.28N 100.04W
04/29/2022  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
04/29/2022  E2.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

&&

AEH