Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1012 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Main focus of this forecast update was to try to capture the
current extent of rainfall and thunderstorms in the PoPs and
updated the overnight hours, mainly by blending with the HRRR for
the next few hours. Also updated the temperatures where
cooling has occurred due to the rainfall. A few thunderstorms are
still possible across the area into the early morning hours
Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

A near-stationary boundary might be the focus of some late
afternoon and evening convection. With little in the way of a cap,
we will have a scenario where deep layer shear will be marginal,
near 30 KTS or so, but MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg this
afternoon/evening will be enough for some pulse-like marginal
severe storms at least. We might even get a brief spin-up along
the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear
environment.

Strong signal for low stratus this morning, and perhaps some
reduced visibility.

We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire
weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air
surges north ahead of the cold front.

Strong negatively tiled shortwave trough heads into the
northern/central Plains tomorrow. Hi- res CAMS indicate that as
the surface low tracks northeast across the CWA tomorrow, the
triple point may wind up being near the tri- cities, putting
tornado threat as far north as the tri- city area for Friday
afternoon/early evening time frame. Plenty of moisture wraps
around into the triple point region and could be a sneaky busy day
for severe weather. Even storms farther west look like potentially
producers of large hail and quite strong severe gusts. The window
for severe activity will be relatively short-lived from mid
afternoon to mid evening time frame before heading east of the
area by late evening.

Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high
wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest,
especially near and west of tri-cities. Saturday looks like a
quite windy and potentially damp day with wrap around moisture on
the backside of the low. Signals from models still point toward
at least marginally high wind with gusts near 60 mph for Saturday.

Next week looks rather cool with potentially several periods of
meaningful rain chances, with increasing consistency with this
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

VCTS could be in the area for much of the night as storm fire near
a boundary this evening. Some storms contain strong to severe wind
and large hail. The severe threat should decrease with time by
overnight, but could become more widespread severe by afternoon
Friday. One caveat for this forecast is a low-level stratus layer
consistently forecast to develop overnight tonight and persist
into Friday morning, with the possibility of elevated
thunderstorms nearby overnight and in the early morning. More
surface based convection is possible by Friday afternoon at both
terminals, especially toward KGRI. Some MVFR visibility is also
possible along with the stratus developing, and LIFR stratus is
possible for a short time, especially between 09Z and 14Z Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1151 PM CDT THU APR 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             EDISON                  40.28N 99.78W
04/28/2022  E1.25 INCH       FURNAS             NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1035 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW ALMA              40.01N 99.39W
04/28/2022  M3.96 INCH       HARLAN             NE   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 630 PM. STILL
            RAINING. UNOFFICIAL PERSONAL WEATHER
            STATION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             2 SW HOLBROOK           40.28N 100.04W
04/29/2022  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
04/29/2022  E2.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

&&

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
115 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

NEZ072-290645-
Gosper NE-
115 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Gosper
County through 145 AM CDT...

At 115 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Arapahoe, or 26 miles south of Lexington, moving north
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Gosper
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 9998 4055 9998 4052 9965 4035 9972
      4036 10006 4044 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 184DEG 8KT 4041 9991

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ADP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
216 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ005-006-017-290745-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-Smith KS-
216 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rooks,
southwestern Smith and southeastern Phillips Counties through 245 AM
CDT...

At 216 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Kirwin, or 13 miles southeast of Phillipsburg,
moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kirwin and Glade around 235 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Phillipsburg and
Agra.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 9938 3985 9939 3977 9897 3957 9904
      3957 9905 3953 9904 3949 9904 3945 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 188DEG 19KT 3957 9921

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ADP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
242 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ018-019-290815-
Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
242 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Mitchell and
northeastern Osborne Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 242 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Osborne to 7 miles northwest
of Barnard. Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Osborne, Beloit, Downs, Portis and Asherville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9880 3957 9878 3957 9793 3936 9793
      3922 9798 3922 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 194DEG 20KT 3934 9874 3925 9815

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

ADP