Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
220 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Dealing with another interesting and challenging severe weather
threat for this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level wave in
Wyoming was spreading cooler and drier air aloft into central NE
this afternoon with elevated convection develop in central NE which
was lifting fairly quickly northward. Still some question on
supercell vs. linear development and the last few runs of the HRRR
are leaning a little more towards a supercell/multicell set up vs
the earlier expectation of a strong bowing segment. Still not
completely buying into this but there will be a little concern if
the ACCAS/showers and thunderstorms moving north move through just
before peak heating which might limit the ability to get surface
based storms going and generate a more organized jet and cold pool.
Current WoFS output still suggesting that the storms that move into
areas near and west of the James Valley through 23z will have a good
chance at producing 50 knot or higher wind gusts. With the 0-3km
bulk shear vector running about 35-40 knots from 210 degrees will
need to watch any linear segment that move northeast for possible
QLCS spinups. The other thought is that with the wave and front a
touch slower than it appeared yesterday is that this initial more
cellular activity will wrap north fairly quickly mid to late
afternoon then after about 0-3z this evening a more linear system
will try to develop in north central and eastern NE and lift
northeast as the cooler and drier air aloft punch east with the
upper wave, bringing a bit higher threat for the strongest winds to
areas near and east of Interstate 29.

Deep west to southwest flow will develop tonight into Friday and
bring much drier air to the region and drop temperatures about 15 to
20 degrees. Expecting highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s on Friday
with wind gusts about 20 to 30 mph, likely closer to 40 mph north of
Interstate 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Monday low pressure will rotate across central
Canada which will keep a dry westerly flow across the Northern
Plains. This will bring mostly dry conditions with seasonally mild
temperatures as well as seasonally breezy conditions. Morning
lows likely to be from the lower 40s to lower 50s with afternoon
highs from about 65 to 75.

Troughiness over the western United States Tuesday into Thursday
will spread into the Northern Rockies by Thursday and bring a series
of waves into the Northern and Central Plains. Too far out to
determine timing and strength of any storms but for now does not
look like a great set up for heavier rain or severe weather. Overall
temperatures will remain seasonally mild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Isolated convection may linger near/north of Hwy 14 early in the
period, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions with increasing
southerly winds through mid afternoon. After 21Z-22Z, expecting
rapid development of thunderstorms into southeast SD, developing
into a line which moves quickly east into northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with any thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening, along with at least brief MVFR-IFR
conditions. Storm timing is somewhat uncertain, but tried to
narrow down a 2-4 hour window of best chances in the TAFs.

After storms move through, a return to VFR conditions is expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069-131015-
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon. Large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and an isolated
tornado are possible. As the storms move east in the early evening,
the greater threat will transition to damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps a tornado are
still possible. The strongest storms should move east of the James
River Valley by 8 pm this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 4 pm and 8 pm.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ039-040-054>056-061-062-066-067-070-071-131015-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Union-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop west of I-29 in the
late afternoon. Storms should evolve into a squall line which will
move quickly east toward I-29, and into northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota in the early evening. Damaging wind gusts to 75 mph will be
the primary threat, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps
a tornado are also possible. The strongest storms should move east
of out of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa by 11pm or midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 5 pm and 11 pm.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
449 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW PARKSTON          43.38N 97.99W
05/12/2022  M65 MPH          HUTCHINSON         SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION PSTS2 PARKSTON (SD MESONET).

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
453 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N DOLTON              43.54N 97.39W
05/12/2022  E80 MPH          MCCOOK             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FARM EQUIPMENT BLOWN ACROSS THE ROAD AND
            DAMAGE TO FARMS/OUT-BUILDINGS.

&&

ST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
501 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S FREEMAN             43.28N 97.42W
05/12/2022  M84 MPH          HUTCHINSON         SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 163 SD RWIS FREEMAN.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW HURON             44.39N 98.23W
05/12/2022  M90 MPH          BEADLE             SD   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KHON HURON REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
513 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERMILLION              42.78N 96.92W
05/12/2022                   CLAY               SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

TRM