Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
552 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Dealing with another interesting and challenging severe weather
threat for this afternoon and evening. A strong upper level wave in
Wyoming was spreading cooler and drier air aloft into central NE
this afternoon with elevated convection develop in central NE which
was lifting fairly quickly northward. Still some question on
supercell vs. linear development and the last few runs of the HRRR
are leaning a little more towards a supercell/multicell set up vs
the earlier expectation of a strong bowing segment. Still not
completely buying into this but there will be a little concern if
the ACCAS/showers and thunderstorms moving north move through just
before peak heating which might limit the ability to get surface
based storms going and generate a more organized jet and cold pool.
Current WoFS output still suggesting that the storms that move into
areas near and west of the James Valley through 23z will have a good
chance at producing 50 knot or higher wind gusts. With the 0-3km
bulk shear vector running about 35-40 knots from 210 degrees will
need to watch any linear segment that move northeast for possible
QLCS spinups. The other thought is that with the wave and front a
touch slower than it appeared yesterday is that this initial more
cellular activity will wrap north fairly quickly mid to late
afternoon then after about 0-3z this evening a more linear system
will try to develop in north central and eastern NE and lift
northeast as the cooler and drier air aloft punch east with the
upper wave, bringing a bit higher threat for the strongest winds to
areas near and east of Interstate 29.

Deep west to southwest flow will develop tonight into Friday and
bring much drier air to the region and drop temperatures about 15 to
20 degrees. Expecting highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s on Friday
with wind gusts about 20 to 30 mph, likely closer to 40 mph north of
Interstate 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Monday low pressure will rotate across central
Canada which will keep a dry westerly flow across the Northern
Plains. This will bring mostly dry conditions with seasonally mild
temperatures as well as seasonally breezy conditions. Morning
lows likely to be from the lower 40s to lower 50s with afternoon
highs from about 65 to 75.

Troughiness over the western United States Tuesday into Thursday
will spread into the Northern Rockies by Thursday and bring a series
of waves into the Northern and Central Plains. Too far out to
determine timing and strength of any storms but for now does not
look like a great set up for heavier rain or severe weather. Overall
temperatures will remain seasonally mild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Strong line of thunderstorms will lift northeast out of the area.
Any showers and thunderstorm activity this evening will remain
more scattered. The exception may be northeast NE and southern
parts of northwest IA where a line of storms may move through from
about 0z to 4z. These storms could have hail and strong winds.
After 6-8z, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069-131015-
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon. Large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and an isolated
tornado are possible. As the storms move east in the early evening,
the greater threat will transition to damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps a tornado are
still possible. The strongest storms should move east of the James
River Valley by 8 pm this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 4 pm and 8 pm.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ039-040-054>056-061-062-066-067-070-071-131015-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Union-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop west of I-29 in the
late afternoon. Storms should evolve into a squall line which will
move quickly east toward I-29, and into northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota in the early evening. Damaging wind gusts to 75 mph will be
the primary threat, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps
a tornado are also possible. The strongest storms should move east
of out of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa by 11pm or midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 5 pm and 11 pm.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
604 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW NUNDA              44.12N 97.07W
05/12/2022                   LAKE               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 LARGE TREES DOWN AND ROOF BLOWN OFF OF
            BARN.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
606 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SIOUX FALLS       43.53N 96.72W
05/12/2022                   MINNEHAHA          SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
613 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE SHELDON           43.22N 95.82W
05/12/2022  M69 MPH          O'BRIEN            IA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KSHL SHELDON AIRPORT.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW BROOKINGS          44.28N 96.82W
05/12/2022  M79 MPH          BROOKINGS          SD   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KBKX BROOKINGS MUNICIPAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

TRM

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