River Flood Warning 4, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

526 
WGUS83 KFSD 131455
FLSFSD

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
955 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...

  N. Branch Pipestone Creek near Pipestone affecting Pipestone 
  County.

MNC117-131600-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220513T1455Z/
/PSNM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.220512T0415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the N. Branch Pipestone Creek near Pipestone.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Friday, May 13 the stage was 43.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:30 AM CDT Thursday was 44.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                         Fld    Observed          
Location                 Stg    Stg    Day/Time            

N. Branch Pipestone Creek
Pipestone                44.0   43.6   Fri 9 AM CDT          


&&

LAT...LON 4406 9642 4411 9625 4408 9625 4404 9639
      4402 9639 4400 9642


$$

Chapman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
646 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

A few challenges to start off today, though forecast is still on
track for increasing severe weather threat later today into this
evening.

Surface boundary appeared to have pushed farther south in the wake
of departing MCV-driven convection overnight, but as of 09Z, looks
to be lifting back toward the Missouri River Valley. Had a broad
area of dense fog develop from east central SD into southwest MN
late last evening, so issued an advisory through the early morning
hours. Visibility has come up dramatically in the past hour or so,
though, so may be able to cancel prior to 7 am. Also had a cluster
of storms develop in south central SD in response to a subtle mid
level wave, which have tracked/expanded northeast toward east
central SD through 09Z. Additional outflow boundary from this
cluster apparent on radar extending down toward I-90 around KMHE as
of 09Z.

Early morning activity should largely be north of our forecast area
by 12Z, but remnant boundaries may have an impact on how storms
evolve later today. Focus through the day will be on trough swinging
through the central Rockies early this morning. This will further
induce surface cyclogenesis in the Nebraska panhandle this morning,
which will lift northward into western South Dakota this afternoon,
lifting the warm front quickly northward through our forecast area.
Most models indicate the warm front will be north of Hwy 14 by 21Z,
but if early morning outflow delays the return flow, this could
place the boundary in our far northern counties around the time of
convective initiation late this afternoon. At the present time, this
doesn't look to have a great impact, as initial development is
expected toward south central SD as the upper trough begins to
interact with a quasi-dryline/pre-frontal trough extending south
from the surface low, well southwest of the warm front location. But
may be something to monitor through the day as it could have an
impact on high temperatures and storm evolution later in the event.

As mentioned by the previous shift, initial storms on the boundary
expected to be discrete supercells, working within the conjunction
of ample instability in the warm moist sector to the east (dry
adiabatic mid level lapse rates contributing to MUCAPE 2500-3000+
J/kg), and strongly sheared (40-60kt deep layer shear) environment
at the base of the negatively tilted trough to the west. Very large
hail would be the greatest risk with these storms, with secondary
risks of damaging winds and possibly a tornado. Strong mid level
flow paralleling the boundary should allow for a transition to
linear storms by early evening as they approach the Hwy 81/I-29
corridors. From here eastward, damaging winds become the primary
threat, with the potential for isolated tornadoes embedded within
the line. Overall expect convection to exit our eastern counties by
late evening, 10pm-midnight, though some trailing rain may linger
into the overnight.

Given abundant rainfall which occurred in parts of the forecast area
on Wednesday afternoon/evening, will also have to closely monitor
for localized flash flooding potential. Given response of rivers in
southwest Minnesota overnight, quickly cresting and already receding
in most locations, confidence is not high enough that additional
rainfall will warrant a flash flood watch, but day shift can
reevaluate after getting a better handle on extent of highest
rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Broad upper trough lingers over the northern Plains Friday into
the weekend, bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures and
less active weather. Cannot rule out some spotty showers/storms as
weak waves slide through the west-northwest flow, with Saturday
night looking most favorable across our southeast counties with
some modest model consensus. But overall this period looks drier.

Precipitation chances ramp up again by the middle of next week as
another broad trough works across western Canada/the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains, but does not look to be any
severe weather risks at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Isolated convection may linger near/north of Hwy 14 early in the
period, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions with increasing
southerly winds through mid afternoon. After 21Z-22Z, expecting
rapid development of thunderstorms into southeast SD, developing
into a line which moves quickly east into northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with any thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening, along with at least brief MVFR-IFR
conditions. Storm timing is somewhat uncertain, but tried to
narrow down a 2-4 hour window of best chances in the TAFs.

After storms move through, a return to VFR conditions is expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069-131015-
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon. Large hail
up to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and an isolated
tornado are possible. As the storms move east in the early evening,
the greater threat will transition to damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps a tornado are
still possible. The strongest storms should move east of the James
River Valley by 8 pm this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 4 pm and 8 pm.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ039-040-054>056-061-062-066-067-070-071-131015-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Union-
505 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop west of I-29 in the
late afternoon. Storms should evolve into a squall line which will
move quickly east toward I-29, and into northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota in the early evening. Damaging wind gusts to 75 mph will be
the primary threat, while hail up to ping pong ball size and perhaps
a tornado are also possible. The strongest storms should move east
of out of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa by 11pm or midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely between 5 pm and 11 pm.