Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
356 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SHORT TERM /Rest of today through Thursday Night/...

While previous convection that allowed for persistent heavy rain
in parts of north Georgia has mostly diminished and moved
northward into the TN Valley and other parts of the Appalachians,
other areas have been triggered near the Atlanta and Athens area,
along with another surge pushing into the southern CWA. Guidance
indicates that late this evening we could have a wave of moisture
push in from the south as well that could focus a cluster or quasi
line of showers and storms. So far some storms have been strong
with gusty winds and some hail though some isolated severe with
damaging winds could occur later as well especially if outflow
interaction can aid updrafts.

Otherwise overnight we could again get a low level stratus deck or
patchy fog given this environment/setup, then Thursday will be
possibly a similar story to today and previous days with the
regime staying in the high PWATs and decent SBCAPE near 2500 J/kg.
Have likely pops across much of the area and should have some
strong storms with possible isolated severe and similar threats
to today.

Max temps Thursday look to be a few degrees below climo norms
given the moist airmass and precip potential.

Finally, there is a change coming to this summertime soup airmass.
Late Thursday into Friday a piece of upper trough energy pushes
south across the Ohio/TN Valleys and a translated sfc front will
approach with drier air behind it. This could increase some pops
for the Thursday night period. See long term discussion below for
more details.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Amplification of upper ridging to our west and a deepening trough
over the Eastern CONUS will force a frontal boundary through much of
the state late Thursday into Friday. The boundary will likely stall
across South GA in the vicinity of the GA/FL border. Thus PoPs will
remain higher across this area both Friday and Saturday afternoon.
Model guidance is still in fairly good agreement with bringing in
some drier air behind the front which looks to hang around for much
of the weekend. This will result in lower rain and thunderstorm
chances and comfortable temperatures. High temperatures will
generally be in the 80s through Sunday. Dewpoints are forecast to be
in the low to mid 60s especially across north and central GA.

Looking ahead to next week, long term guidance hints at several
waves rotating through the base of the upper trough across the
eastern CONUS resulting in the return of showers and storms each
day. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

TSRA coverage near most of the sites initially, then another wave
or seabreeze initiated cluster of storms could increase coverage
from the south and make it to the northern sites perhaps near 23/00z
or later. Otherwise could have cu near 3 kft or alto coverage this
afternoon into tonight and another possible IFR cig deck in the
morning (have BKN006 at sites). Thursday should have another
period of SHRA/TSRA with greatest chance in afternoon so have
prob30 for TSRA groups from 18-00z. Winds mainly SW to west 7 kts
or less through period with VRB gusts possible with any storms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on overall TSRA timing/coverage and morning lower cig
potential.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
Atlanta         70  87  70  87 /  40  70  60  40
Blairsville     65  81  63  82 /  40  70  60  20
Cartersville    69  86  68  86 /  40  70  60  20
Columbus        71  89  71  88 /  40  70  60  70
Gainesville     70  85  69  86 /  30  60  50  30
Macon           71  88  71  88 /  30  70  60  70
Rome            70  87  70  89 /  40  70  60  10
Peachtree City  69  87  69  88 /  50  70  60  40
Vidalia         73  91  72  87 /  20  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1046 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1046 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Some ongoing morning showers and thunderstorms that have been
training across portions of north Georgia have resulted in several
Flash Flood Warnings being issued. Some rainfall amounts near 3
inches have possibly fallen in northwest Georgia with an
additional 1 to 2 inches possible as well.

Otherwise scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop through the afternoon and evening across north and
central Georgia. Some storms could become strong and a few
isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out with the main threats
of strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through Thursday. As usual during
the summer, any storm will have the potential to become strong to
severe and be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to central Georgia
and portions of north Georgia for Friday and then mainly far
south central Georgia for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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