Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

The southeast remains entrenched in an incredibly moist airmass,
situated on the western edge of the Bermuda High at the surface, and
in a weakness between two ridges aloft. All this to say, it's
shaping up to be another day with sporadic convective initiation
along residual outflow and mesoscale differential heating
boundaries. Afternoon thunderstorm chances look to be
maximized/focused along and north of I-85, aided in part by a
shortwave disturbance at the mid-levels that will sweep across the
OH River Valley this afternoon.  Patchy fog is possible around
daybreak this morning in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday evening, but thanks to lingering showers west of the ATL
Metro (still present at time of AFD publication), potential remains
for anvil debris to prevent necessary radiational cooling from
occurring. Despite proximity to mid-level shortwave, steering flow
remains extremely weak. When combined with PWATs at or above 2"
areawide (2" measured on the 10/00Z sounding), longer-lived storms
will need to be monitored for flash flooding potential. SBCAPE is
progged to be on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, enough oomph to
produce gusty to strong downburst winds upon storm collapse.

Thanks to increased cloud cover from inflated rain chances, highs
today look to max out in the mid-80s to low-90s, just at or slightly
below average for early August. Overnight lows are forecasted to be
around 70, just a few degrees above climo.

96

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

The pattern looks to change as the ridge to our west builds and the
trough deepens into the SE states.  With this pattern change comes a
front that looks to pass through our area Friday before stalling out
over southern Georgia/north Florida. Likely Pops mainly confined to
southern Georgia are included in the forecast as the convection and
rain chances will be centered around the front. Behind the front
comes a drier airmass that is expected to stay in place through the
weekend, which is the reasoning behind the almost nonexistent PoPs
in the forecast. An overall pleasant weekend is in store with temps
in the mid 80, dewpoints in the 60s, and low PoPs.

Definitely enjoy the taste of fall this weekend because looking into
next week, the trough sits over our area funneling moisture in from
the north as early as Monday. This will increase PoPs slightly
across north and central Georgia and give us those afternoon showers
and thunderstorms indicative of the summer that just won't leave.
Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period. SHRA present
south of I-20, with convective initiation already occurring near
northern terminals. Patchy IFR to LIFR cigs likely to continue
through 14-15Z this morning. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA activity to pick
up around 17-18Z, with best window for northern TAF sites looking
like 20-02Z. Winds to remain out of the SW at 4-7kts today after
dropping to nearly calm overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA coverage/timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  71  87  69 /  50  40  70  40
Atlanta         88  71  87  71 /  60  40  70  40
Blairsville     82  65  80  63 /  70  50  70  30
Cartersville    87  70  86  69 /  70  50  70  40
Columbus        90  71  89  72 /  40  30  70  40
Gainesville     85  70  85  68 /  60  40  70  30
Macon           92  71  90  71 /  40  30  70  40
Rome            88  71  88  70 /  70  50  70  40
Peachtree City  89  69  88  69 /  50  30  70  40
Vidalia         93  73  92  72 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
501 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening across north and central Georgia. Some
storms could become strong and a few isolated severe storms
cannot be ruled out with the main threats of strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through Thursday. As usual during
the summer, any storm will have the potential to become strong to
severe and be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to central Georgia
and portions of north Georgia for Friday and then mainly far
south central Georgia for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
814 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ004-005-012-101245-
Whitfield GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
814 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Murray,
south central Whitfield and Gordon Counties through 845 AM EDT...

At 813 AM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located from
Resaca to Nickelsville to near Ranger, and moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Calhoun, Resaca, Ranger, Sonoraville, Oostanaula, Sugar Valley,
Redbud, Nickelsville and Audubon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8478 3448 8468 3440 8482 3440 8489
      3443 8494 3444 8504 3464 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 223DEG 6KT 3459 8498 3458 8485 3448 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
819 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ002-004-101245-
Whitfield GA-Walker GA-
819 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Whitfield and southeastern Walker Counties through 845 AM EDT...

At 819 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Naomi, or near
Lafayette, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Naomi, Noble, Suttles Mill and Villanow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8520 3477 8520 3478 8516 3477 8516
      3477 8512 3465 8505 3459 8519 3459 8522
      3464 8527 3465 8534 3480 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 224DEG 8KT 3469 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE LAGRANGE          33.03N  85.02W
08/08/2022                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND TRAFFIC LIGHT DOWN IN LAGRANGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200862

SM