Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.UPDATE...

Persistent convection in parts of the north have been training
across some areas along with near 2.5 inches of possible rainfall
that has fallen, which have warranted a couple Flash Flood
Warnings this morning. Also another lingering low level stratus
deck is across portions of the area that could again delay some
other convective triggering but differential heating near the
edges could trigger some earlier today. Overall keeping chance to
likely pops through the afternoon into evening that could
linger later also with outflow driven interaction. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 751 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

..Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

The southeast remains entrenched in an incredibly moist airmass,
situated on the western edge of the Bermuda High at the surface, and
in a weakness between two ridges aloft. All this to say, it's
shaping up to be another day with sporadic convective initiation
along residual outflow and mesoscale differential heating
boundaries. Afternoon thunderstorm chances look to be
maximized/focused along and north of I-85, aided in part by a
shortwave disturbance at the mid-levels that will sweep across the
OH River Valley this afternoon.  Patchy fog is possible around
daybreak this morning in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday evening, but thanks to lingering showers west of the ATL
Metro (still present at time of AFD publication), potential remains
for anvil debris to prevent necessary radiational cooling from
occurring. Despite proximity to mid-level shortwave, steering flow
remains extremely weak. When combined with PWATs at or above 2"
areawide (2" measured on the 10/00Z sounding), longer-lived storms
will need to be monitored for flash flooding potential. SBCAPE is
progged to be on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, enough oomph to
produce gusty to strong downburst winds upon storm collapse.

Thanks to increased cloud cover from inflated rain chances, highs
today look to max out in the mid-80s to low-90s, just at or slightly
below average for early August. Overnight lows are forecasted to be
around 70, just a few degrees above climo.

96

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

The pattern looks to change as the ridge to our west builds and the
trough deepens into the SE states.  With this pattern change comes a
front that looks to pass through our area Friday before stalling out
over southern Georgia/north Florida. Likely Pops mainly confined to
southern Georgia are included in the forecast as the convection and
rain chances will be centered around the front. Behind the front
comes a drier airmass that is expected to stay in place through the
weekend, which is the reasoning behind the almost nonexistent PoPs
in the forecast. An overall pleasant weekend is in store with temps
in the mid 80, dewpoints in the 60s, and low PoPs.

Definitely enjoy the taste of fall this weekend because looking into
next week, the trough sits over our area funneling moisture in from
the north as early as Monday. This will increase PoPs slightly
across north and central Georgia and give us those afternoon showers
and thunderstorms indicative of the summer that just won't leave.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period. SHRA present
south of I-20, with convective initiation already occurring near
northern terminals. Patchy IFR to LIFR cigs likely to continue
through 14-15Z this morning. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA activity to pick
up around 17-18Z, with best window for northern TAF sites looking
like 20-02Z. Winds to remain out of the SW at 4-7kts today after
dropping to nearly calm overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA coverage/timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  71  87  69 /  50  40  70  40
Atlanta         86  71  87  71 /  60  40  70  40
Blairsville     81  65  80  63 /  70  50  70  30
Cartersville    85  70  86  69 /  70  50  70  40
Columbus        90  71  89  72 /  40  30  70  40
Gainesville     85  70  85  68 /  60  40  70  30
Macon           90  71  90  71 /  40  30  70  40
Rome            86  71  88  70 /  70  50  70  40
Peachtree City  87  69  88  69 /  50  30  70  40
Vidalia         91  73  92  72 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...96/Baker
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1046 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1046 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Some ongoing morning showers and thunderstorms that have been
training across portions of north Georgia have resulted in several
Flash Flood Warnings being issued. Some rainfall amounts near 3
inches have possibly fallen in northwest Georgia with an
additional 1 to 2 inches possible as well.

Otherwise scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop through the afternoon and evening across north and
central Georgia. Some storms could become strong and a few
isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out with the main threats
of strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through Thursday. As usual during
the summer, any storm will have the potential to become strong to
severe and be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to central Georgia
and portions of north Georgia for Friday and then mainly far
south central Georgia for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

GAZ102-103-102000-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
330 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Stewart and
Webster Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Weston, or 9 miles
southwest of Preston, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Preston, Richland, Weston, Seminole, Troutman, Kimbrough, Brooklyn,
Centerpoint and Leveretts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8472
      3218 8482 3222 8460 3219 8459 3219 8457
      3218 8456 3217 8454 3216 8455 3215 8453
      3214 8453 3213 8450 3192 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 169DEG 21KT 3195 8461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH