Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Instability has been very slow to make a push eastward. But late
this evening, winds have finally swung around to the south and dew
points have jumped into the 60s west of I-65. Bulk Shear values
and low level helicities remain high enough to support all modes
of severe weather ans this airmass will move eastward through 6
am. Some pinching of the airmass is possible as warm front, 50s
dew points far east, remains in the area with a short period to
see advection. The latest Tornado Watch covers areas as far east
as Birmingham to Troy.

Some areas in the north where the Flash Flood Watch is in effect
have received 2 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts.
Another batch of heavier rain will move through overnight with
another 1-2 inches or more. Much of the ground saturation has been
loaded up and runoff will be enhanced with additional rainfall.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Closer to the Lower Mississippi Valley, a warm sector is
currently establishing and is expected to spread north/northeast
as the parent low pressure system quickly advances toward the
Upper Midwest. This forecast trend will support the more favorable
surface-based warm sector could move into our area later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest HREF suggests
500-1,000 J/kg SBCAPE, potentially 1,500 J/kg given modest mid-
level lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) for areas west of I-65, as
dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s. These values generally
decline with eastward extent where dewpoints remain in the low
60s or less through tonight.

Given abundant kinematics (50-60+ kts bulk shear) strong to
severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Central Alabama as
ongoing and/or developing clusters of supercells move from
Mississippi into western Alabama. These storms will pose all
modes of severe weather including convective wind gusts 60-70+
mph, large hail, and tornadoes given progged 200-400 0-1 km SRH.
This threat will impact areas west and northwest this evening
first, generally spreading to the east and southeast into the
overnight hours. These storms will also pose a threat of heavy
rainfall if they become oriented in a manner that training can
occur. Rainfall totals approaching 4" will be possible, if so.
Flash flooding potential has certainly increased for areas along
and north of I-20 given latest forecast expectations.

Severe weather (and any flash flooding concerns) will end as the
cold front moves through the area later tonight bringing cold air
advection and a change to brisk northwesterly winds.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

A much colder air mass will overspread Central Alabama Wednesday
night through Friday. Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper
20s north to lower 30s south. A combination of very dry air at the
low levels Thursday afternoon and light winds Thursday night will
lead to good radiational cooling conditions, and lowered minimum
temperatures a few degrees Friday morning. Moderating temperatures
Friday and Saturday as the low level flow becomes south-southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will develop ahead of
the front across north Alabama Friday night and into Saturday.
The front will stall out over north Alabama on Sunday and will
maintain small rain chances along and north of I-20. The front
will lift northward Sunday night and Monday as a warm front, with
most of the rain staying north of central Alabama. Overall,
temperatures will be above normal over the weekend and into early
next week, especially for areas south of I-20.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will impact all the northern terminals
at the start of the period. The convection will not exit until
09-11z with some light rain lingering for a short time. The
southern sites will experience a few hours lag before arrival and
then convection last until 13-15z. Ceilings bottom out around 012
generally with brief 1-2sm br/ra. Winds will be gusty at times and
the direction will veer from south to northwest through 18z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system is expected to bring wetting rains with
thunderstorms to Central Alabama tonight into early Wednesday
morning, with locally heavy rainfall. This system will usher in
much colder and drier air Wednesday and Thursday, with rain free
conditions Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Minimum RH on
Wednesday will be 45-55 percent and 25-30 percent Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  60  27  56 / 100  20   0   0
Anniston    59  62  30  58 / 100  30   0   0
Birmingham  57  61  32  56 / 100  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  61  32  58 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      60  63  31  57 / 100  20   0   0
Auburn      61  66  34  58 / 100  80   0   0
Montgomery  66  68  33  60 / 100  50   0   0
Troy        65  70  35  63 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-
Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-010230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A threat for severe storms exists across all of Central Alabama
through 8 AM Wednesday. Threats include tornadoes, damaging winds
70 to 80 mph, and hail up to golf ball size. The highest risk for
these threats is along and west of Interstate 65. Heavy rainfall may
also result in localized flooding. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Ongoing severe storms are possible through 8AM Wednesday morning
south of I-85. Heavy rainfall will continue to pose the threat of
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Wednesday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1102 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ012-022-300545-
Pickens AL-Lamar AL-
1102 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pickens
and southern Lamar Counties through 1145 PM CST...

At 1101 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Steens, or near Columbus, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Millport, Kennedy, Ethelsville, Blooming Grove, Crossville,
Cody, Shaw, Star, Hightogy, Forest, Melborne and Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for west central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8825 3381 8795 3352 8794 3341 8796
      3341 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 253DEG 40KT 3354 8829

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25/Owen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 AM CST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND GST     QUINTON                 33.67N 87.07W
11/30/2022  E40 MPH          WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            40 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

GMS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 AM CST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE BIRMINGHAM INTERNA 33.57N 86.75W
11/30/2022  M52 MPH          JEFFERSON          AL   ASOS

            PEAK WIND FROM BIRMINGHAM INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

GMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
116 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

ALZ023-025-027-031-032-034-035-300830-
Greene AL-Chilton AL-Hale AL-Bibb AL-Shelby AL-Talladega AL-
Tuscaloosa AL-
116 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Chilton, southwestern Talladega, southern Tuscaloosa, Shelby,
northeastern Greene, northeastern Hale and Bibb Counties through 230
AM CST...

At 116 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Patton Creek to near West Greene. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Hoover, Alabaster, Pelham, Helena, Sylacauga, Calera,
Chelsea, Montevallo, Childersburg, Brent, Columbiana, Centreville,
Jemison, Wilsonville, Talladega Springs, Holt, Moundville, Indian
Springs Village and Vincent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for central, west
central and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3334 8718 3332 8718 3328 8707 3325 8706
      3325 8698 3333 8689 3337 8678 3341 8675
      3338 8598 3330 8598 3329 8612 3319 8612
      3320 8617 3310 8618 3310 8649 3302 8652
      3287 8722 3302 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 280DEG 43KT 3336 8681 3299 8805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
128 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

ALZ019-027-300815-
Calhoun AL-Talladega AL-
128 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Talladega and Calhoun
Counties through 215 AM CST...

At 128 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rainbow City to near Pell City to near
Westover. Movement was east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Anniston, Oxford, Talladega, Jacksonville, Piedmont, West End-Cobb
Town, Cobb Town, Fort McClellan, Saks, Lincoln, Glencoe, Weaver,
Riverside, Vincent, Munford, Ohatchee, Hobson City, Waldo, Alpine Bay
Resort and Talladega Superspeedway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 8564 3380 8559 3377 8564 3365 8564
      3350 8590 3331 8598 3333 8636 3339 8638
      3351 8628 3349 8624 3354 8619 3359 8622
      3364 8617 3369 8620 3367 8615 3377 8604
      3384 8606 3395 8588 3395 8553 3389 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 268DEG 62KT 3392 8606 3360 8623 3339 8655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham