Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Instability has been very slow to make a push eastward. But late
this evening, winds have finally swung around to the south and dew
points have jumped into the 60s west of I-65. Bulk Shear values
and low level helicities remain high enough to support all modes
of severe weather ans this airmass will move eastward through 6
am. Some pinching of the airmass is possible as warm front, 50s
dew points far east, remains in the area with a short period to
see advection. The latest Tornado Watch covers areas as far east
as Birmingham to Troy.

Some areas in the north where the Flash Flood Watch is in effect
have received 2 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts.
Another batch of heavier rain will move through overnight with
another 1-2 inches or more. Much of the ground saturation has been
loaded up and runoff will be enhanced with additional rainfall.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Closer to the Lower Mississippi Valley, a warm sector is
currently establishing and is expected to spread north/northeast
as the parent low pressure system quickly advances toward the
Upper Midwest. This forecast trend will support the more favorable
surface-based warm sector could move into our area later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest HREF suggests
500-1,000 J/kg SBCAPE, potentially 1,500 J/kg given modest mid-
level lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) for areas west of I-65, as
dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s. These values generally
decline with eastward extent where dewpoints remain in the low
60s or less through tonight.

Given abundant kinematics (50-60+ kts bulk shear) strong to
severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Central Alabama as
ongoing and/or developing clusters of supercells move from
Mississippi into western Alabama. These storms will pose all
modes of severe weather including convective wind gusts 60-70+
mph, large hail, and tornadoes given progged 200-400 0-1 km SRH.
This threat will impact areas west and northwest this evening
first, generally spreading to the east and southeast into the
overnight hours. These storms will also pose a threat of heavy
rainfall if they become oriented in a manner that training can
occur. Rainfall totals approaching 4" will be possible, if so.
Flash flooding potential has certainly increased for areas along
and north of I-20 given latest forecast expectations.

Severe weather (and any flash flooding concerns) will end as the
cold front moves through the area later tonight bringing cold air
advection and a change to brisk northwesterly winds.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

A much colder air mass will overspread Central Alabama Wednesday
night through Friday. Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper
20s north to lower 30s south. A combination of very dry air at the
low levels Thursday afternoon and light winds Thursday night will
lead to good radiational cooling conditions, and lowered minimum
temperatures a few degrees Friday morning. Moderating temperatures
Friday and Saturday as the low level flow becomes south-southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will develop ahead of
the front across north Alabama Friday night and into Saturday.
The front will stall out over north Alabama on Sunday and will
maintain small rain chances along and north of I-20. The front
will lift northward Sunday night and Monday as a warm front, with
most of the rain staying north of central Alabama. Overall,
temperatures will be above normal over the weekend and into early
next week, especially for areas south of I-20.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will impact all the northern terminals
at the start of the period. The convection will not exit until
09-11z with some light rain lingering for a short time. The
southern sites will experience a few hours lag before arrival and
then convection last until 13-15z. Ceilings bottom out around 012
generally with brief 1-2sm br/ra. Winds will be gusty at times and
the direction will veer from south to northwest through 18z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system is expected to bring wetting rains with
thunderstorms to Central Alabama tonight into early Wednesday
morning, with locally heavy rainfall. This system will usher in
much colder and drier air Wednesday and Thursday, with rain free
conditions Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Minimum RH on
Wednesday will be 45-55 percent and 25-30 percent Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  60  27  56 / 100  20   0   0
Anniston    59  62  30  58 / 100  30   0   0
Birmingham  57  61  32  56 / 100  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  61  32  58 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      60  63  31  57 / 100  20   0   0
Auburn      61  66  34  58 / 100  80   0   0
Montgomery  66  68  33  60 / 100  50   0   0
Troy        65  70  35  63 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-
Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-010230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A threat for severe storms exists across all of Central Alabama
through 8 AM Wednesday. Threats include tornadoes, damaging winds
70 to 80 mph, and hail up to golf ball size. The highest risk for
these threats is along and west of Interstate 65. Heavy rainfall may
also result in localized flooding. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Ongoing severe storms are possible through 8AM Wednesday morning
south of I-85. Heavy rainfall will continue to pose the threat of
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             HACKLEBURG              34.28N 87.83W
11/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0613 PM     HAIL             3 N BEVILL STATE COLLEG 33.77N 87.83W
11/29/2022  E0.50 INCH       FAYETTE            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     WALKER COUNTY AIRPORT   33.90N 87.32W
11/29/2022  M46 MPH          WALKER             AL   AWOS

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW KANSAS             33.86N 87.61W
11/29/2022                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG CR 121.

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUMITON                 33.75N 87.05W
11/29/2022                   WALKER             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            ROOF DAMAGE ON STORAGE BUILDINGS ON MAIN
            STREET. LEFT SIDE OF ONE BUILDING WAS
            DAMAGED.

0944 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE EUTAW REST AREA   32.85N 87.92W
11/29/2022                   GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE SAGEWOOD APARTMENTS
            NEAR EUTAW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1026 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE EUTAW REST AREA   32.85N 87.92W
11/29/2022                   GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1
            ESE EUTAW REST AREA TO TORNADO. DAMAGE
            REPORTED AT THE SAGEWOOD APARTMENTS NEAR
            EUTAW. TDS SEEN ON RADAR.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     TORNADO          3 NE AKRON              32.91N 87.71W
11/29/2022                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO RESIDENCES
            IN THE AKRON AREA. TDS SEEN ON RADAR.

&&

GMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1102 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ012-022-300545-
Pickens AL-Lamar AL-
1102 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pickens
and southern Lamar Counties through 1145 PM CST...

At 1101 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Steens, or near Columbus, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Millport, Kennedy, Ethelsville, Blooming Grove, Crossville,
Cody, Shaw, Star, Hightogy, Forest, Melborne and Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for west central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8825 3381 8795 3352 8794 3341 8796
      3341 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 253DEG 40KT 3354 8829

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

25/Owen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 AM CST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND GST     QUINTON                 33.67N 87.07W
11/30/2022  E40 MPH          WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            40 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

GMS

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