Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Birmingham, AL

164 
WWUS54 KBMX 300106
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
706 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALC075-300115-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-221130T0115Z/
Lamar AL-
706 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY...

At 706 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blooming Grove,
or near Vernon, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Blooming Grove, Crossville, Cody and Hightogy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8795 3363 8812 3382 8814 3385 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 247DEG 25KT 3372 8802 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

17/KLAWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
606 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
Issued at 115 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

GOES-East satellite imagery currently depicts increasing cloud
cover behind an ~850 mb warm front, generally the boundary where
scattered showers are now spreading northeast into Central
Alabama. Western portions of the forecast area are situated closer
to more meaningful MUCAPE values, 500-1,000 J/kg per
mesoanalysis, where more robust convection is ongoing. A pair of
elevated supercells moved through here recently, amidst an
increased shear environment, where eff. bulk shear of 50-60 kts
is analyzed in northwest Alabama. These storms will pose mainly a
hail threat into the afternoon hours as elevated instability
spreads into areas west of I-65. Any additional storms in this
region (north of surface-based instability) will also pose mainly
a hail threat this afternoon. Areas east of I-65 are still
situated in a recovering and warming boundary layer, but winds
remain east-southeasterly thus far, limiting meaningful moisture
increases. Gadsden has warmed ~40 degrees since their morning low
of 31 degrees.

We continue to monitor other observations as less warm sector
contamination has led to temperatures trending above forecast
values. Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 70s across
southern Alabama and southern Mississippi where dewpoints have
also increased. This has fostered increasing SBCAPE despite SCT to
BKN stratus on satellite imagery. It is currently 79/72 in
Hattiesburg MS, and 75/68 in Jackson MS. However, clusters of
showers and storms are currently developing in far south Alabama.
This activity may interrupt the warm sector for portions of our
area later in the afternoon.

40/Sizemore

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Closer to the Lower Mississippi Valley, a warm sector is
currently establishing and is expected to spread north/northeast
as the parent low pressure system quickly advances toward the
Upper Midwest. This forecast trend will support the more favorable
surface-based warm sector could move into our area later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest HREF suggests
500-1,000 J/kg SBCAPE, potentially 1,500 J/kg given modest mid-
level lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) for areas west of I-65, as
dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 60s. These values generally
decline with eastward extent where dewpoints remain in the low
60s or less through tonight.

Given abundant kinematics (50-60+ kts bulk shear) strong to
severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Central Alabama as
ongoing and/or developing clusters of supercells move from
Mississippi into western Alabama. These storms will pose all
modes of severe weather including convective wind gusts 60-70+
mph, large hail, and tornadoes given progged 200-400 0-1 km SRH.
This threat will impact areas west and northwest this evening
first, generally spreading to the east and southeast into the
overnight hours. These storms will also pose a threat of heavy
rainfall if they become oriented in a manner that training can
occur. Rainfall totals approaching 4" will be possible, if so.
Flash flooding potential has certainly increased for areas along
and north of I-20 given latest forecast expectations.

Severe weather (and any flash flooding concerns) will end as the
cold front moves through the area later tonight bringing cold air
advection and a change to brisk northwesterly winds.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

A much colder air mass will overspread Central Alabama Wednesday
night through Friday. Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper
20s north to lower 30s south. A combination of very dry air at the
low levels Thursday afternoon and light winds Thursday night will
lead to good radiational cooling conditions, and lowered minimum
temperatures a few degrees Friday morning. Moderating temperatures
Friday and Saturday as the low level flow becomes south-southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will develop ahead of
the front across north Alabama Friday night and into Saturday.
The front will stall out over north Alabama on Sunday and will
maintain small rain chances along and north of I-20. The front
will lift northward Sunday night and Monday as a warm front, with
most of the rain staying north of central Alabama. Overall,
temperatures will be above normal over the weekend and into early
next week, especially for areas south of I-20.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

Mainly MVFR cigs outside and in TSRA tonight. Could get an
isolated IFR as well with storms. VSBYs should be VFR generally
outside of TSRA and MVFR-IFR in storms. Winds will be gusty
outside of storms and will shift to the SW tonight and NW into
Wed morning behind the front. Conditions should go VFR behind the
storms/front roughly as early as 13z in the W and 17z in the SE.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system is expected to bring wetting rains with
thunderstorms to Central Alabama tonight into early Wednesday
morning, with locally heavy rainfall. This system will usher in
much colder and drier air Wednesday and Thursday, with rain free
conditions Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Minimum RH on
Wednesday will be 45-55 percent and 25-30 percent Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  60  27  56 / 100  20   0   0
Anniston    59  62  30  58 / 100  30   0   0
Birmingham  57  61  32  56 / 100  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  61  32  58 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      60  63  31  57 / 100  20   0   0
Auburn      61  66  34  58 / 100  80   0   0
Montgomery  66  68  33  60 / 100  50   0   0
Troy        65  70  35  63 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following counties:
Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-
Marion-St. Clair-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-010230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
519 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A threat for severe storms exists across all of Central Alabama
through 8 AM Wednesday. Threats include tornadoes, damaging winds
70 to 80 mph, and hail up to golf ball size. The highest risk for
these threats is along and west of Interstate 65. Heavy rainfall may
also result in localized flooding. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Ongoing severe storms are possible through 8AM Wednesday morning
south of I-85. Heavy rainfall will continue to pose the threat of
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
102 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             HACKLEBURG              34.28N 87.83W
11/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
310 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ037-043>045-047-292215-
Lee AL-Tallapoosa AL-Montgomery AL-Macon AL-Elmore AL-
310 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Elmore,
northwestern Lee, western Macon, southeastern Tallapoosa and east
central Montgomery Counties through 415 PM CST...

At 310 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shorter, or 7 miles south of Milstead, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Opelika, Tuskegee, Tallassee, Notasulga, Milstead, Shorter,
Franklin, Waverly, Reeves Airport, Lake Tuskegee, Auburn University,
Waugh, Liverpool, Liberty City, Tallapoosa City, Hardaway,
Tysonville, Victoryland and Loachapoka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 8587 3228 8587 3230 8590 3227 8590
      3227 8598 3225 8599 3233 8609 3272 8574
      3274 8557 3273 8543 3274 8543 3273 8540
      3273 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 221DEG 47KT 3233 8595

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

17/KLAWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
405 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ038-292230-
Chambers AL-
405 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Chambers
County through 430 PM CST...

At 405 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chambers County Lake, or near Lafayette, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lanett, Lafayette, La Fayette, Lakeview, Five Points, Cusseta,
Chambers County Lake, Fredonia, Post Oak Forks, Veasey Creek Park,
Denson, Huguley, Amity Park, Sturkie, Standing Rock, Oak Bowery,
Buffalo, West Chambers, Southern Harbor and Rocky Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8534 3273 8540 3274 8541 3274 8543
      3282 8554 3311 8526 3311 8523 3287 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 223DEG 47KT 3282 8540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

17/KLAWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
532 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

ALZ011>014-300015-
Fayette AL-Winston AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
532 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
western Winston, Fayette and Lamar Counties through 615 PM CST...

At 532 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Brinn to Kolola Springs. Movement was east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Fayette, Haleyville, Vernon, Sulligent, Millport,
Lynn, Guin, Berry, Double Springs, Brilliant, Glen Allen, Kennedy,
Detroit, Belk, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Houston Recreational Area and Brushy Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for central and
west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3405 8802 3431 8774 3430 8725
      3429 8725 3400 8751 3400 8764 3387 8764
      3387 8753 3369 8753 3369 8742 3360 8743
      3361 8763 3358 8763 3358 8767 3352 8768
      3354 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 251DEG 37KT 3417 8777 3365 8839

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

17/KLAWS