Storm Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
FZAK51 PAFC 171153 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-180315-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A series of fronts move across the Gulf of Alaska through Mon 
evening. A 960 mb N Pacific low moves 330 nm S of Middleton 
Island Tue evening and then to 110 nm SE of Middleton Island Wed
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-180315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-180315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-180315-
Resurrection Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt early becoming S 15 kt.
Seas  3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-180315-
Prince William Sound-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-180315-
Port Valdez-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-180315-
Valdez Narrows-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-180315-
Valdez Arm-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-180315-
Passage Canal-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-180315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas
7 ft  in the morning building to 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-180315-
Barren Islands East-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-180315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft  in the morning building to 20 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-180315-
Chiniak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt in the morning becoming N 40 kt. Seas 7 ft
in the morning building to 12 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-180315-
Marmot Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
in the morning building to 12 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-180315-
Shelikof Strait-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
in the morning building to 11 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-180315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft
in the morning building to 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-180315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-180315-
Kachemak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

515 
FZAK51 PAFC 172337
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-181245-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low 40 nm southwest of the Barren Islands dissipates 
through Mon night. A 971 mb North Pacific low moves to 260 nm 
south of Middleton Island at 963 mb by Tue afternoon. It then moves
to 60 nm west of Yakutat at 995 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-181245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft 
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 29 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-181245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 24 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-181245-
Resurrection Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft 
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-181245-
Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-181245-
Port Valdez-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-181245-
Valdez Narrows-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-181245-
Valdez Arm-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-181245-
Passage Canal-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-181245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-181245-
Barren Islands East-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 45 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-181245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-181245-
Chiniak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-181245-
Marmot Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-181245-
Shelikof Strait-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-181245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-181245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-181245-
Kachemak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The weather pattern over the state is simple overall, in that
there is a broad upper level low over the Bering Sea and the jet
Stream is running south-to-north out of the north Pacific and to
the AlCan border to the east of this low. However, it is complex
in all the details that accompany this broad upper level low. The
first thing that stands out looking at the satellite imagery from
early this afternoon is the upper level circulation that is
moving from south-to-northwest over the Kamishak Gap and into
southwest Alaska. There is good lifting associated with this
feature and it is ushering in widespread rain showers across the
Bristol Bay area, the Cook Inlet region and along the north Gulf
coast. This precipitation is mostly rain in the warmer airmass
over the Gulf of Alaska and into Bristol Bay. Precipitation has
stayed mixed rain and snow over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon
which remains in a cooler airmass for now. Also of interest is how
far south the cold air cumulus extends into the North Pacific as
the cold air moves out of the central and western Bering Sea and
into the Pacific. This cumulus is seen down to about 47N before
wrapping back northward into the southerly flow moving toward the
Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main model changes that will have an impact on the forecast
is the slightly more easterly course of the strong low in the
Gulf for mid-week and the behavior of a front as it approaches the
Southwest mainland Alaska coast on Wednesday. The strong low in
the Gulf is tracking a little farther east which should keep the
strongest winds associated with it in the eastern Gulf of Alaska.
For the strong front moving through the Bering and to the
Southwest coast on Wednesday, a new wrinkle in this feature is
that the GFS, EC, and GEM all now want to develop a secondary or
even a tertiary low along the front right as it moves over the
SOuthwest. Models are not in good agreement with how this will
form but three of them now showing something of this nature is
significant and will impact the winds and perhaps precipitation in
this area as well depending on how this all develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...
Some southeasterly winds should make it into the airport by this
evening and persist into Monday morning. That should help keep
conditions mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance of MVFR
conditions inside of showers before 17th/04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Today through Tuesday night)...

A complex low pressure system stretched from Bethel to Kodiak
continues to send a series of gradually weakening waves into
Southcentral. This means the swath of precipitation along the
Southcentral coast will continue, however diminishing, until
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Currently, this system is
accompanied by a moisture-tap running northward along the eastern
Gulf. This moisture transport is feeding the unsettled conditions
in Southcentral. Generally, precipitation  with this disturbance
will likely remain rain along coastal Southcentral. Tonight and
Monday night some wintry mix is possible in the Copper River
Basin and higher elevations if precipitation makes its way into
the region.

Focus is then brought back to the Northern Pacific as a low
pressure system moves into the southern Gulf with the potential to
bring storm-force winds with it, entering the Gulf Monday night.
Models currently agree very well regarding this system's track
and intensity, bringing the potential for high end gales near the
coast and storm-force winds offshore. This low will be sporting a
strong leading front bringing strong winds and precipitation
ahead of the low. This front will move over Kodiak Island Tuesday
morning, bring strong winds and heavy rain that will last through
the day Tuesday. This low will continue north, impacting the
Southcentral coast by Tuesday afternoon. For now, the inland push
from this system does not seem impressive as the low will track
eastward towards Yakutat. Precipitation in Southcentral will
begin to taper off following the departure of this low out of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon)...

A broad trough and embedded low pressure systems extends from the
Yukon Delta across the extreme eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Southerly flow and upper level shortwaves continue to
rotate into Southwest Alaska as rain continues for the Bristol
Area. However, further north into the Kuskokwim Valley
(Sleetmute), wintry precipitation in the form of a freezing rain
mix is observered as low level cold air has hung on for most of
the day. Freezing rain should transition to light snow overnight
as the column cools. Conditions remain status quo with not much
change Monday and Monday evening regarding precipitation as
additional upper shortwaves continue to impact the area. A ridge
builds in for Tuesday with dry conditions ruling the roost. The
next big weather maker will be a frontal system that approaches
from the Bering on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning.
Indications are that rain will be the dominant precipitation type
for the coast while inland locations, especially the Kuskokwim
Valley, could have wintry precipitation type issues. Please check
back as the forecast gets fine tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

The unsettled pattern continues for most Bering and the Aleutians
as a broad trough with multiple embedded low pressure systems
continues to impact the domain. As high pressure and ridging
builds over the western Aleutians and low pressure continues to
slowly drift off to the north along coastal western Alaska, the
pressure gradient will tighten. A band of small craft northerly to
northwesterly winds will be sandwiched between these systems and
progress eastward starting tonight as the ridge moves to the east.
The favored gaps and passes of the extreme eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula are expected to gust to gale force
during the day on Tuesday. The next big weather maker looks to be
a storm force front that will affect the western Bering
Sea/western Aleutians starting Tuesday. The front will weaken as
it moves eastward, but bring with it blustery and rainy conditions
to most of the Aleutians and will reach southwestern Alaska on
the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Unsettled weather is in store for Southern Alaska and the Bering
Sea through the extended period, with model agreement about
average. The long term begins on Thursday with an upper level
trough over much of the Bering Sea. An occluded low embedded
within this trough pushes its front into Mainland Alaska
through Thursday, bringing elevated winds and rain/snow.

The next feature to watch is a shortwave in the North Pacific
Ocean that spins up a surface low on Friday. Models have not been
in good agreement, though it appears that they may be slowly
converging on a solution. The GFS and Canadian deterministic
models show this low tracking south of the Aleutian Islands on
Friday, then moving into the Gulf by Saturday night as it runs up
against a ridge. However, the deterministic ECMWF model shows this
low remaining in the North Pacific due to weaker ridging. Beyond
the track, there are also differences in the strength of this
low. The deterministic Canadian model has been the most
aggressive, with pressure dropping as low as 970 mb with the low
center. The 12Z GFS had been a bit less aggressive (with minimum
pressure around 1000 mb), though the latest model run is
suggesting that the low center will drop to around 990 mb with a
trend towards stronger winds. Both the deterministic Canadian and
GFS models have winds of at least gale force, with a period of
storm force winds around the backside of the low. The
deterministic Canadian model is even suggesting a brief period of
hurricane force winds, though whether that plays out remains to be
seen. Uncertainty remains high, with ensemble members showing a
broad range in sea level pressure associated with this feature.

By Sunday, the aforementioned low should depart the Gulf, leading
to gusty outflow winds through Kamishak Gap. Further west, the
presence of an upper level low over Eastern Russia suggests more
unsettled weather is on the way, though the specifics remain
uncertain. The question is how strong a shortwave rounding this
upper level low will be, and how quickly its associated surface
low will occlude. These factors will affect the maximum winds
expected with this low and the potential development of a low at
the triple point.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
Gale Warning 352 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DAN
LONG TERM...KC