Storm Warning 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
FZAK61 PAFC 172337
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181345-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 mb low at 59N 153W dissipates through Mon night. A 971 mb 
North Pacific low moves to 55N 147W at 963 mb by Tue afternoon. It
then moves to 60N 142W at 995 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft building to 12 to 18 ft
in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming N 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
337 PM AKDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 16 to 31 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 35 ft subsiding to
17 to 25 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

771 
FZAK61 PAFC 181224
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190100-
424 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 962 mb North Pacific low at 51N 148W moves to 55N 145W at 964 mb
Tue afternoon. The low continues to 60N 142W at 989 mb Wed
morning and then moves inland while dissipating Wed afternoon. A 
front associated with a Bering Sea low enters the southwestern 
Gulf Wed night.

$$

PKZ351-190100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
424 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft building to 14 to 19 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 18 
to 26 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
424 AM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. W of 145W...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming
N in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 13 to
21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

257 
FZAK61 PAFC 182357
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191400-
357 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong 963 mb low at 55N 146W moves inland near 60N 140W at 987
mb by Wed afternoon. Its front moves over the North Gulf Coast 
and Southeast Alaska for Wed afternoon. A 1000 mb low forms near 
56N 157W Wed night and moves to 60N 148W at 1004 mb by Thu 
afternoon. Its front moves into the Central Gulf through Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-191400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 30 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 PM AKDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The weather pattern over the state is simple overall, in that
there is a broad upper level low over the Bering Sea and the jet
Stream is running south-to-north out of the north Pacific and to
the AlCan border to the east of this low. However, it is complex
in all the details that accompany this broad upper level low. The
first thing that stands out looking at the satellite imagery from
early this afternoon is the upper level circulation that is
moving from south-to-northwest over the Kamishak Gap and into
southwest Alaska. There is good lifting associated with this
feature and it is ushering in widespread rain showers across the
Bristol Bay area, the Cook Inlet region and along the north Gulf
coast. This precipitation is mostly rain in the warmer airmass
over the Gulf of Alaska and into Bristol Bay. Precipitation has
stayed mixed rain and snow over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon
which remains in a cooler airmass for now. Also of interest is how
far south the cold air cumulus extends into the North Pacific as
the cold air moves out of the central and western Bering Sea and
into the Pacific. This cumulus is seen down to about 47N before
wrapping back northward into the southerly flow moving toward the
Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main model changes that will have an impact on the forecast
is the slightly more easterly course of the strong low in the
Gulf for mid-week and the behavior of a front as it approaches the
Southwest mainland Alaska coast on Wednesday. The strong low in
the Gulf is tracking a little farther east which should keep the
strongest winds associated with it in the eastern Gulf of Alaska.
For the strong front moving through the Bering and to the
Southwest coast on Wednesday, a new wrinkle in this feature is
that the GFS, EC, and GEM all now want to develop a secondary or
even a tertiary low along the front right as it moves over the
SOuthwest. Models are not in good agreement with how this will
form but three of them now showing something of this nature is
significant and will impact the winds and perhaps precipitation in
this area as well depending on how this all develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...
Some southeasterly winds should make it into the airport by this
evening and persist into Monday morning. That should help keep
conditions mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance of MVFR
conditions inside of showers before 17th/04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Today through Tuesday night)...

A complex low pressure system stretched from Bethel to Kodiak
continues to send a series of gradually weakening waves into
Southcentral. This means the swath of precipitation along the
Southcentral coast will continue, however diminishing, until
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Currently, this system is
accompanied by a moisture-tap running northward along the eastern
Gulf. This moisture transport is feeding the unsettled conditions
in Southcentral. Generally, precipitation  with this disturbance
will likely remain rain along coastal Southcentral. Tonight and
Monday night some wintry mix is possible in the Copper River
Basin and higher elevations if precipitation makes its way into
the region.

Focus is then brought back to the Northern Pacific as a low
pressure system moves into the southern Gulf with the potential to
bring storm-force winds with it, entering the Gulf Monday night.
Models currently agree very well regarding this system's track
and intensity, bringing the potential for high end gales near the
coast and storm-force winds offshore. This low will be sporting a
strong leading front bringing strong winds and precipitation
ahead of the low. This front will move over Kodiak Island Tuesday
morning, bring strong winds and heavy rain that will last through
the day Tuesday. This low will continue north, impacting the
Southcentral coast by Tuesday afternoon. For now, the inland push
from this system does not seem impressive as the low will track
eastward towards Yakutat. Precipitation in Southcentral will
begin to taper off following the departure of this low out of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon)...

A broad trough and embedded low pressure systems extends from the
Yukon Delta across the extreme eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Southerly flow and upper level shortwaves continue to
rotate into Southwest Alaska as rain continues for the Bristol
Area. However, further north into the Kuskokwim Valley
(Sleetmute), wintry precipitation in the form of a freezing rain
mix is observered as low level cold air has hung on for most of
the day. Freezing rain should transition to light snow overnight
as the column cools. Conditions remain status quo with not much
change Monday and Monday evening regarding precipitation as
additional upper shortwaves continue to impact the area. A ridge
builds in for Tuesday with dry conditions ruling the roost. The
next big weather maker will be a frontal system that approaches
from the Bering on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning.
Indications are that rain will be the dominant precipitation type
for the coast while inland locations, especially the Kuskokwim
Valley, could have wintry precipitation type issues. Please check
back as the forecast gets fine tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

The unsettled pattern continues for most Bering and the Aleutians
as a broad trough with multiple embedded low pressure systems
continues to impact the domain. As high pressure and ridging
builds over the western Aleutians and low pressure continues to
slowly drift off to the north along coastal western Alaska, the
pressure gradient will tighten. A band of small craft northerly to
northwesterly winds will be sandwiched between these systems and
progress eastward starting tonight as the ridge moves to the east.
The favored gaps and passes of the extreme eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula are expected to gust to gale force
during the day on Tuesday. The next big weather maker looks to be
a storm force front that will affect the western Bering
Sea/western Aleutians starting Tuesday. The front will weaken as
it moves eastward, but bring with it blustery and rainy conditions
to most of the Aleutians and will reach southwestern Alaska on
the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Unsettled weather is in store for Southern Alaska and the Bering
Sea through the extended period, with model agreement about
average. The long term begins on Thursday with an upper level
trough over much of the Bering Sea. An occluded low embedded
within this trough pushes its front into Mainland Alaska
through Thursday, bringing elevated winds and rain/snow.

The next feature to watch is a shortwave in the North Pacific
Ocean that spins up a surface low on Friday. Models have not been
in good agreement, though it appears that they may be slowly
converging on a solution. The GFS and Canadian deterministic
models show this low tracking south of the Aleutian Islands on
Friday, then moving into the Gulf by Saturday night as it runs up
against a ridge. However, the deterministic ECMWF model shows this
low remaining in the North Pacific due to weaker ridging. Beyond
the track, there are also differences in the strength of this
low. The deterministic Canadian model has been the most
aggressive, with pressure dropping as low as 970 mb with the low
center. The 12Z GFS had been a bit less aggressive (with minimum
pressure around 1000 mb), though the latest model run is
suggesting that the low center will drop to around 990 mb with a
trend towards stronger winds. Both the deterministic Canadian and
GFS models have winds of at least gale force, with a period of
storm force winds around the backside of the low. The
deterministic Canadian model is even suggesting a brief period of
hurricane force winds, though whether that plays out remains to be
seen. Uncertainty remains high, with ensemble members showing a
broad range in sea level pressure associated with this feature.

By Sunday, the aforementioned low should depart the Gulf, leading
to gusty outflow winds through Kamishak Gap. Further west, the
presence of an upper level low over Eastern Russia suggests more
unsettled weather is on the way, though the specifics remain
uncertain. The question is how strong a shortwave rounding this
upper level low will be, and how quickly its associated surface
low will occlude. These factors will affect the maximum winds
expected with this low and the potential development of a low at
the triple point.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178.
Gale Warning 352 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DAN
LONG TERM...KC