Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Broad upper low remains over the region early this morning with
multiple smaller scale upper vortices noted on latest satellite
imagery. There remains the potential for additional clusters of
storms to develop late tonight in modest low level jet axis.
Exact timing of storms remains challenging and will therefore
cover with TEMPO/PROB30 groups through the morning hours at most
TAF sites. Otherwise, IFR ceilings should persist at KFSM with
additional areas of patchy fog possible over NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 906 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving
upper low that has affected the area for the last several days
have mostly dissipated as the sun has set this evening. A cluster
of thunderstorms is still affecting far southeast Oklahoma with
some heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. This cluster will move
out of the area over the next hour with just some lingering
showers behind it. Otherwise...we will see a mostly dry rest of
the evening. Thunderstorm chances are then expected to increase,
particularly across northeast Oklahoma later tonight and toward
tomorrow morning. A narrow axis of locally heavy rainfall will be
possible from late tonight through tomorrow morning, with some
flooding concerns possible in areas of training storms. For the
update...adjusted PoPs somewhat in the short term to allow for
current trends, also made some minor adjustments to temps.
Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track for tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest
of this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with the greatest
coverage expected across western Arkansas and far eastern
Oklahoma. Some locally heavy rainfall will be the greatest concern
with some localized flooding potential possible in areas where
storms train over the same areas that have already received heavy
rain.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the first part of next
week before it looks to dry out some by Thursday and Friday. Areas
of heavy rainfall will be possible with slow moving storms and
high rainfall rates over the next couple of days. A few of the
storms could be strong with some gusty winds and possibly some
small hail, but the threat of any organized severe weather will
remain low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

OKZ049-053-070215-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
839 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND
EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Oleta to 2 miles east of Sawyer to 7
miles southeast of Hugo. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Towson...                    Sawyer...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Raymond Gary State Park...
Oleta...                          Ord...
Corinne...                        Fallon...
Sobol...                          Huskey...
Swink...                          Frogville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551 3388 9555
      3403 9540 3423 9538 3423 9515 3394 9516
      3396 9523 3394 9525 3390 9526 3391 9527
      3390 9528 3389 9528 3387 9529 3389 9533
      3387 9534 3387 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 274DEG 17KT 3415 9533 3403 9533 3391 9545

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
201 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

OKZ066-070-071-070730-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-McIntosh OK-
201 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH...WESTERN
MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 200 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located 3 miles northeast
of Preston, 2 miles north of Morris, 4 miles southwest of Council
Hill and near Stidham. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Morris...                         Council Hill...
Stidham...                        Bald Hill...
Hitchita...                       Pierce...
Eram...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 253 and
259.

LAT...LON 3583 9588 3571 9573 3558 9562 3544 9561
      3534 9569 3547 9574 3560 9586 3576 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 221DEG 12KT 3574 9593 3564 9584 3551 9570 3538
9568

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

OKZ066-070-071-070800-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-McIntosh OK-
225 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

At 224 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles north of Bald Hill to 4 miles east of Lake
Eufaula State Park. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with these storms with very
heavy rain.

Locations in or near the path include...
Checotah...                       Haskell...
Oktaha...                         Boynton...
Council Hill...                   Rentiesville...
Lake Eufaula State Park...        Bald Hill...
Wainwright...                     Jamesville...
Eram...                           Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 257 and
271.

LAT...LON 3580 9595 3586 9575 3586 9570 3541 9535
      3532 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0724Z 250DEG 14KT 3578 9583 3541 9553

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
227 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

OKZ066-070800-
Okmulgee OK-
227 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OKMULGEE COUNTY UNTIL 300
AM CDT...

At 227 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Okmulgee State Park to 4 miles west
of Schulter. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with these storms with very
heavy rain.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Henryetta...
Schulter...                       Preston...
Okmulgee State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma near mile marker 234.

LAT...LON 3580 9597 3551 9590 3542 9606 3568 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 221DEG 15KT 3566 9607 3549 9603

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
229 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

OKZ059-060-064-070800-
Tulsa OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
229 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CREEK...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM
CDT...

At 229 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mannford,
moving east at 15 mph.

Pea to dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mannford...                       Westport...
Keystone State Park...

LAT...LON 3623 9633 3623 9628 3618 9626 3617 9627
      3616 9627 3616 9625 3607 9620 3604 9637
      3618 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 250DEG 11KT 3614 9635