Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/VFR cigs to prevail, with brief IFR cigs across SE OK during
the first 6-8 hours of the valid period. Rain thunder chances will
also be greatest across the SE OK/NW AR sites during this time.
Rain chances will diminish this evening, with a period of VFR
elements expected before cigs lower to MVFR categories around
12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Heaviest rainfall that fell overnight across parts of northeast
Oklahoma has pushed away from that area. However, areal flooding will
be prevalent well into the afternoon as runoff continues. Focus
for heavy rainfall will shift across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas this afternoon as another vort lobe rotates
around the main upper low. Have adjusted pops some, with chance
PoPs from the northwest part of the forecast area to likely/categorical
across SE OK and WC AR. Rain chances will begin to shift east
tomorrow with warm and humid conditions expected for the middle to
latter parts of the work week.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Several clusters of strong thunderstorms will continue this
morning with IFR/MVFR conditions in the stronger storms. Much of
this activity should begin to weaken this afternoon as atmosphere
stabilizes. Could see some patchy fog or low clouds redevelop
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of
northeast OK on the southwestern flank of broad upper level low,
which was centered near OK/KS/MO borders. Expect continued
development within this corridor during the morning with a low-end
threat of hail, but a bigger concern for locally excessive
rainfall amounts due to slow movement of storms and anomalously
high precip H2O. Isolated 2-3" per hour rates will likely cause
some degree of flash flood threat, however given the uncertain
evolution of storms over the next several hours will not issue a
watch at this time and handle with short-fused products as needed.
The overall trend in short-range guidance is for this activity to
weaken later this morning with storms becoming focused farther
south and east through the afternoon, though model agreement
leaves some to be desired.

The upper low will continue to gradually lift northeast with
lingering trough axis remaining over the forecast area Tuesday.
Later tonight there is a decent signal for a strengthening low
level jet to set up over the southern plains with increasing
moisture transport. It is possible that heavy rain could impact
the same general areas that see heavy rain today, however
confidence lacks to support a watch issuance at this time.

The trend will be for lessening shower and thunderstorm chances
by mod to late week with upper ridge amplifying over the Southern
Plains, providing us with our first taste of summer weather with
temperatures warming a bit above normal and humidity remaining
high. Still appears a frontal boundary will push south into the
area by the weekend underneath the strengthening ridge and as such
wold expect any thunderstorm chances with the front to remain
fairly limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  73  89 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   69  84  72  87 /  60  60  40  30
MLC   68  84  72  86 /  50  40  20  10
BVO   67  85  72  88 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   64  81  67  85 /  60  60  50  30
BYV   65  81  68  84 /  50  70  40  40
MKO   68  81  71  86 /  40  40  30  20
MIO   67  84  69  86 /  40  40  20  30
F10   68  83  72  87 /  30  30  20  10
HHW   69  84  72  86 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
 	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Slow moving storms with high rainfall rates will continue this
afternoon, with the focus for heavy rainfall and additional flash flooding
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Areal flooding
from the previous heavy rainfall across parts of northeast Oklahoma will
also continue this afternoon. One or two of the stronger cells across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas may briefly produce marginally severe wind
gusts, but organized severe weather is not expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the first part of next
week before it looks to dry out some by Thursday and Friday. Areas
of heavy rainfall will be possible with slow moving storms and
high rainfall rates through Tuesday. A few of the storms could be
strong with some gusty winds and possibly some small hail, but
the threat of any organized severe weather will remain low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TERLTON                 36.19N 96.49W
06/07/2021                   PAWNEE             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CIMMARON ROAD IN TERLTON WASHED OUT BY HEAVY RAINS.
            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
06/07/2021                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF 11 HOMES IMPACTED BY FLASH FLOODING. SWIFT
            WATER RESCUES UNDERWAY. THE TOWNS OF DEWAR AND HENRYETTA
            ASSISTING WITH WATER RESCUES.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
06/07/2021  E13.10 INCH      OKMULGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 13.1 INCHES WAS OBSERVED AT A PERSONAL
            RAIN GAUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF OKMULGEE. RAIN IS ONGOING.
            GAUGE IS NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED.

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COUNCIL HILL            35.56N 95.65W
06/07/2021  E13.40 INCH      MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 13.4 INCHES WAS OBSERVED AT A PERSONAL
            RAIN GAUGE IN COUNCIL HILL. RAIN IS ONGOING. THIS GAUGE
            IS NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE GRAY              36.16N 96.07W
06/07/2021  M8.23 INCH       TULSA              OK   MESONET

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE SAPULPA           36.01N 96.11W
06/07/2021  M6.12 INCH       CREEK              OK   MESONET

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW JENKS              36.07N 96.02W
06/07/2021  M5.27 INCH       TULSA              OK   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW CHECOTAH           35.40N 95.61W
06/07/2021                   MCINTOSH           OK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HEAVY RAINS WASHED OUT SECTION OF SH-150 SOUTH OF
            INTERSTATE 40 NEAR LAKE EUFAULA.

&&

JDS