Areal Flood Warning 17, NWS Tulsa, OK

595 
WGUS84 KTSA 072105
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

OKC091-107-111-072115-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FA.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210607T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McIntosh OK-Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-
405 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE, SOUTH 
CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3529 9619 3547 9620 3547 9581 3531 9543
      3529 9550 3527 9552 3522 9561 3522 9562
      3524 9560 3525 9561 3525 9563 3519 9572
      3518 9577 3520 9580 3519 9587 3517 9588
      3524 9592 3529 9598

$$

MAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Heaviest rainfall that fell overnight across parts of northeast
Oklahoma has pushed away from that area. However, areal flooding will
be prevalent well into the afternoon as runoff continues. Focus
for heavy rainfall will shift across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas this afternoon as another vort lobe rotates
around the main upper low. Have adjusted pops some, with chance
PoPs from the northwest part of the forecast area to likely/categorical
across SE OK and WC AR. Rain chances will begin to shift east
tomorrow with warm and humid conditions expected for the middle to
latter parts of the work week.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Several clusters of strong thunderstorms will continue this
morning with IFR/MVFR conditions in the stronger storms. Much of
this activity should begin to weaken this afternoon as atmosphere
stabilizes. Could see some patchy fog or low clouds redevelop
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of
northeast OK on the southwestern flank of broad upper level low,
which was centered near OK/KS/MO borders. Expect continued
development within this corridor during the morning with a low-end
threat of hail, but a bigger concern for locally excessive
rainfall amounts due to slow movement of storms and anomalously
high precip H2O. Isolated 2-3" per hour rates will likely cause
some degree of flash flood threat, however given the uncertain
evolution of storms over the next several hours will not issue a
watch at this time and handle with short-fused products as needed.
The overall trend in short-range guidance is for this activity to
weaken later this morning with storms becoming focused farther
south and east through the afternoon, though model agreement
leaves some to be desired.

The upper low will continue to gradually lift northeast with
lingering trough axis remaining over the forecast area Tuesday.
Later tonight there is a decent signal for a strengthening low
level jet to set up over the southern plains with increasing
moisture transport. It is possible that heavy rain could impact
the same general areas that see heavy rain today, however
confidence lacks to support a watch issuance at this time.

The trend will be for lessening shower and thunderstorm chances
by mod to late week with upper ridge amplifying over the Southern
Plains, providing us with our first taste of summer weather with
temperatures warming a bit above normal and humidity remaining
high. Still appears a frontal boundary will push south into the
area by the weekend underneath the strengthening ridge and as such
wold expect any thunderstorm chances with the front to remain
fairly limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  69  85  73 /  90  40  30  20
FSM   75  69  84  72 /  90  80  70  40
MLC   75  68  84  72 /  90  60  50  20
BVO   78  67  85  72 /  70  40  20  10
FYV   76  64  81  67 /  60  60  70  40
BYV   77  65  81  68 /  60  50  70  50
MKO   76  68  81  71 /  90  60  40  20
MIO   79  67  84  69 /  50  40  40  30
F10   76  68  83  72 /  90  60  30  20
HHW   81  69  84  72 /  90  60  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of
today, with the greatest coverage expected to shift more toward
the east later in the day. Slow moving storms with high rainfall
rates will lead to localized rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches,
which will cause isolated flash flooding. Stronger cells may also
briefly produce marginally severe hail, but organized severe
weather is not expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the first part of next
week before it looks to dry out some by Thursday and Friday. Areas
of heavy rainfall will be possible with slow moving storms and
high rainfall rates through Tuesday. A few of the storms could be
strong with some gusty winds and possibly some small hail, but
the threat of any organized severe weather will remain low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/07/2021                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            INTERSTATE 44 EASTBOUND WAS BRIEFLY CLOSED IN WEST TULSA
            BETWEEN HIGHWAY 75 AND THE I-244 INTERCHANGE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S HENRYETTA           35.43N 95.98W
06/07/2021                   OKMULGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING. ROADWAY CLOSURES.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TERLTON                 36.19N 96.49W
06/07/2021                   PAWNEE             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CIMMARON ROAD IN TERLTON WASHED OUT BY HEAVY RAINS.
            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
959 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
06/07/2021                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF 11 HOMES IMPACTED BY FLASH FLOODING. SWIFT
            WATER RESCUES UNDERWAY. THE TOWNS OF DEWAR AND HENRYETTA
            ASSISTING WITH WATER RESCUES.

&&

JDS