Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...a mid/upper level low was slowly lifting
northeast across Missouri with a trailing upper level trof axis to
the southwest across Eastern Oklahoma. Scattered showers and a few
storms were lifting northward across far Northwest Arkansas with
the movement of the low. At the same time...additional showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing this afternoon across Southeast
Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas as a vort max within the base
of the mid/upper level trof axis over Northeast Texas was making
its way east northeast. This activity is forecast to continue
into this evening as the vort max lifts northeast into
Western/Central Arkansas. Additional precip development along the
southwest flank of the MCV will be possible overnight tonight across
Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.

Ample amounts of moisture lifting within the low level mean flow
over the top of a surface boundary near the Red River was allowing
for continued redevelopment and efficient rain producing cells.
Rain rates greater than one inch per hr were associated with the
stronger cells. Forecast rainfall amounts of a half inch to near 2
inches with locally higher amounts remain possible through
tonight across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas with
lesser amounts to the northwest. Thus...will continue with the
ongoing flash flood watch.

Also with the convection this afternoon across Southeast Oklahoma
as it crosses the surface boundary...0-1km shear values around
20KTs combined with surface and elevated instability could allow
for the possibility of a strong to near severe storm with the
potential for some rotation. The greater potential for this should
remain east and south of the CWA...where ongoing tornado warnings
were in effect across Southwest Arkansas. Severe potentials
should weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday as the vort
max/MCV exits the region and the upper level trof axis remains
over the region. The greater potential for precip should remain
across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The upper level
trof axis should shift east of the CWA Wednesday night/Thursday
with precipitation chances tapering off and exiting Western
Arkansas Thursday evening. With the continued ample amounts of
moisture...locally heavy rainfall will be possible within this
activity through mid week. After tonight though...forecast
rainfall amounts look to remain less than one inch Tuesday through
Thursday.

In the wake of the exiting precip...a building ridge of high
pressure from the southwest is forecast into the weekend over the
region. In response...warm and humid conditions are forecast
Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s and low 90s and heat
index values in the 90s to around 100 deg. These conditions could
quickly increase heat stress concerns with most not acclimated to
these conditions yet.

An upper level wave is progged to move into the Northern Plains
Friday with a surface frontal boundary diving southeast into the
CWA underneath the upper ridge Friday night. Even underneath the
ridge...surface dewpoints in the 70s interacting with the
southeastward moving boundary could allow for a few showers and
storms to be possible Saturday and Sunday across portions of the
region. This could also knock temps back down a few degrees over
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  72  89 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   69  83  72  87 /  60  60  40  30
MLC   69  84  72  87 /  50  40  20  10
BVO   67  85  70  88 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   66  81  68  85 /  60  60  50  30
BYV   66  81  68  85 /  50  70  40  40
MKO   67  82  71  86 /  40  40  30  10
MIO   67  83  70  87 /  40  40  20  20
F10   68  84  71  87 /  30  30  20  10
HHW   70  84  72  87 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
 	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Slow moving storms with high rainfall rates will continue this
afternoon, with the focus for heavy rainfall and additional flash flooding
across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Areal flooding
from the previous heavy rainfall across parts of northeast Oklahoma will
also continue this afternoon. One or two of the stronger cells across southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas may briefly produce marginally severe wind
gusts, but organized severe weather is not expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the first part of next
week before it looks to dry out some by Thursday and Friday. Areas
of heavy rainfall will be possible with slow moving storms and
high rainfall rates through Tuesday. A few of the storms could be
strong with some gusty winds and possibly some small hail, but
the threat of any organized severe weather will remain low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
06/07/2021  E13.10 INCH      OKMULGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 13.1 INCHES WAS OBSERVED AT A PERSONAL
            RAIN GAUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF OKMULGEE. RAIN IS ONGOING.
            GAUGE IS NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED.

1035 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COUNCIL HILL            35.56N 95.65W
06/07/2021  E13.40 INCH      MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 13.4 INCHES WAS OBSERVED AT A PERSONAL
            RAIN GAUGE IN COUNCIL HILL. RAIN IS ONGOING. THIS GAUGE
            IS NOT QUALITY CONTROLLED.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE GRAY              36.16N 96.07W
06/07/2021  M8.23 INCH       TULSA              OK   MESONET

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE SAPULPA           36.01N 96.11W
06/07/2021  M6.12 INCH       CREEK              OK   MESONET

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW JENKS              36.07N 96.02W
06/07/2021  M5.27 INCH       TULSA              OK   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW CHECOTAH           35.40N 95.61W
06/07/2021                   MCINTOSH           OK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HEAVY RAINS WASHED OUT SECTION OF SH-150 SOUTH OF
            INTERSTATE 40 NEAR LAKE EUFAULA.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.53W
06/07/2021  M5.25 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SRC