Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1014 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe storms with all hazards including
flooding have been observed this evening, with the strongest
storms tracking from southeast Oklahoma into west central
Arkansas. A nearly stationary surface boundary from near
Fayetteville to Eufaula will begin moving southeast overnight.
Showers and storms will gradually diminish in intensity after
midnight, although a few showers will linger into Tuesday mainly
across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

Have adjusted some first period forecast elements based on current
conditions and the latest hi-res model output, with the rest of
the forecast left as is.

Update on the way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop this evening as numerous showers and
thunderstorms overspread the area. Showers will linger into
Tuesday morning at the northeast Oklahoma sites, with mainly MVFR
ceilings continuing. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR at
the northeast Oklahoma sites Tuesday afternoon. North winds will
gust to over 20 knots at times later tonight and Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 147 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The stage is set for the weather to get active
late this afternoon into the overnight hours
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

At 1 pm, a cold front was located near a Jay, Oklahoma
to Chandler, Oklahoma line. A warm front had surged north
to around Interstate 40. Meanwhile a mid-level low was
spinning over the southern Rockies. The airmass in the
warm sector south of I-40 has become increasingly unstable
with surface dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Surface
based cape values are already in in the 3000 to 4000 J/KG
range across this afternoon.

Rapid thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon
and evening as the cap weakens in the vicinity of the the cold
front as it sags further to the south and east. Some of the
CAM solutions hint the initial thunderstorm development will
take place across east-central Oklahoma and further to
the south along the dry line into north-central Texas. This
initial activity is expected to become severe with very large
hail, damaging winds to around 70 mph and tornadoes all possible
as the deep layer shear improves across the region. Severe
thunderstorms are expected to line up all along the cold
front/dry line and spread to east as the evening wears on
with damaging winds and large hail becoming the main concern.
However, the tornado threat will continue. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop behind the cold front this evening across
northeast Oklahoma as the mid-level shortwave approaches from
the west. These storms will likely pose a large hail threat.
The severe weather threat will wind down as we move into the
early morning hours of Tuesday. However, the chances of showers
and storms will persist into Tuesday afternoon as the mid-level
system moves across the region.

Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday in the wake of
the departing cold front. There will be small chances for showers
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday
night as a weak system moves through the region. Unsettled
weather returns over the weekend and into early next week as a
frontal boundary sags into the areas.
the region

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM Eastern Oklahoma. After 9 PM Northwest
			Arkansas.

	AREA OF GREATEST RISK...Along and Southeast of Okfuskee county
							Benton county.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...South of Interstate 44 and also Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM Eastern Oklahoma. After 9 PM Northwest
			Arkansas.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALong and Southeast of Okfuskee county
							to Benton county.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...East Central and Southeast Oklahoma and also Northwest
		   Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight as a
cold front pushes across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and quickly
strengthen early this evening and move into Southeast Oklahoma and
spread across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this
evening and tonight. The greatest severe threat is expected ahead
of the front from Okfuskee county in east central Oklahoma to
Benton county in northwest Arkansas and southeast through
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Large hail to the
size of baseballs, damaging winds of 70 mph and a couple of
tornadoes will be possible within these locations. These storms
should start out more discrete and organize into a line of storms
as they move over far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas late
this evening. As this transition occurs, severe weather threats
are forecast to transition to more of a damaging wind and large
hail threat with an low tornado potential along the leading line
of storms overnight. Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible
with these storms with rainfall amounts greater than one inch
across parts of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This
rainfall on top of recent rains will allow for areas of flash
flooding conditions to be possible.

Behind the front across northeast Oklahoma, storms look to be
more elevated in nature with large hail to the size of golf balls
and damaging winds of 60 mph possible. These storms along with
severe weather conditions will remain possible into the overnight
hours before the front exits the region. Overall severe potentials
should begin to weaken after midnight tonight. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will remain possible late tonight into
Tuesday as the upper level low pressure system moves across the
region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances return Friday night and continue through the
weekend as low level moisture begins to increase with stronger
zonal flow aloft. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
Continue to monitor the latest forecast.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management personnel should continue to closely monitor
weather conditions this evening into tonight as severe weather is
expected over much of eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROLAND                  35.42N 94.51W
05/03/2021                   SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE IN THE ROLAND AND MULDROW AREA CONSISTED OF
            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. ONE TREE FELL ONTO A HOME, TRAPPING
            ONE PERSON INSIDE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE WHITESBORO        34.70N 94.87W
05/03/2021                   LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1023 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE SHADY GROVE        36.11N 94.11W
05/03/2021                   WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: TREES UPROOTED OR
            SNAPPED; ROOF BLOWN OFF.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
05/03/2021                   PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL VEHICLES STRANDED IN HIGH WATER.
            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MCALESTER           34.88N 95.78W
05/03/2021  M3.14 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MCAL MCALESTER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-076-040415-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
1052 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SEBASTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1052 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Bokoshe to 5 miles northwest of
Hartford to 4 miles north of Beauchamp. Movement was northeast at 40
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Poteau...                         Greenwood...
Barling...                        Pocola...
Lavaca...                         Spiro...
Arkoma...                         Panama...
Mansfield...                      Hackett...
Hartford...                       Huntington...
Bonanza...                        Bokoshe...
Midland...                        Cameron...
Moffett...                        Excelsior...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 2 and 14.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3514 9414 3510 9414 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9424 3495 9434 3496 9437 3494 9439
      3493 9444 3481 9445 3500 9458 3521 9482
      3523 9482 3546 9435 3527 9408 3522 9408
      3520 9406 3521 9403 3514 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 245DEG 41KT 3526 9474 3508 9445 3487 9426

Lacy