Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Short term models and CAMs have been struggling with the
convection, but recent radar trends suggest we are finally seeing
a more organized MCS developing across north central KS. 07Z
surface obs show a relatively moist airmass still over east
central KS while the latest 850MB profiler data shows the low
level jet beginning to veer more to the south-southwest with
decent speed convergence into east central KS. The continued
advection of warm moist air should be enough for storms to
continue into eastern parts of the forecast area through the mid
morning hours. At this time, I would anticipate the track of these
storms to be south of the latest HRRR depiction along the better
theta-e gradient into east central KS. The main uncertainty in the
short term forecast is whether storms continue through the
morning pushing an outflow through much of the CWA or is there a
break in precip allowing the airmass to recover as a more synoptic
cold front pushes through this afternoon. Unfortunately
confidence in the models is poor given the recent history. But
they still show some redevelopment in the afternoon along the
front. With the surface low analyzed over western KS at 07Z, think
there is still some potential for moisture and instability to
advect ahead of the frontal boundary and causing some
destabilization over east central KS for this afternoon. Because
of this the forecast still has some likely POPs but have backed
off on the categorical wording due to the uncertainty in the
models. Instability looks to be good for severe storms, but
forecast hodographs remain messy through the afternoon with large
inflection in mid levels. This would imply storms would struggle
to remain discrete and multicellular evolutions are more likely.
Have continued with highs in the lower 80s across east central KS
as southerly winds continue to advect warmer air into the area.
Areas near the NEB state line may see some cold air advection by
the early afternoon limiting highs to the middle and upper 70s. By
this evening, the front is forecast to have pushed through much
if not all of the forecast area. This should bring an end to
precip chances as drier air moves in as the better dynamics pass
to the east. Models are showing some high RH values moving in
behind the front indicative of stratus. So have increased cloud
cover for tonight and think this may keep lows from falling to far
into the 40s.

Quiet weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with relatively
dry air over the area thanks to a surface ridge. Also models develop
some shortwave ridging. However by Sunday and through the first half
of next week, the consensus is for another slow moving upper trough
setting up to the west of the forecast area. There are differences
in the timing of shortwave energy moving through the central
plains. So the forecast broad brushes POPs from Sunday through
Wednesday. With the upper trough expected to setup somewhere over the
central plains for much of next week, mid level heights remain
relatively low limiting chances for strong warm air advection. So
the blend of models keeps temps below normal with highs generally
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Uncertainty in the evolution of convection overnight remains with
scattered TSRA clustering west of KMHK while another cluster of
TSRA centers over southern NE. Added TSRA at KMHK where storms are
most likely to impact the area, with lesser confidence at
KTOP/KFOE as short term models poorly handle the line of TSRA with
some suggestion it passes just north of terminals aft 10Z.
Therefore went with VCTS aft 10Z with activity clearing the sites
between 13Z and 15Z. Additional TSRA is possible along the
boundary by mid afternoon, although coverage should remain
scattered and clear the sites before 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>037.

Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ012-024-
026-038>040-055-056.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272315-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
612 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into north central
Kansas this evening and through northeast and east central Kansas
overnight. With storms expected to be in a large cluster,
damaging winds up to 80 mph and large hail up to golf ball sizes
are the primary hazards. Although a tornado can not be ruled out
if a discrete storm develops south of the main cluster.

The thunderstorms are forecast to be efficient rain producers as
well, with some locations possibly receiving 1 to 3 inches of
rain in a short period of time. Because of this, a flash flood
watch has been issued for tonight and into Thursday morning for
areas along and north of a line from Ottawa to Junction City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms could redevelop across east central Kansas
Thursday afternoon. Again large hail, damaging winds and very
heavy rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage, large hail and rainfall
amounts over one inch to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
145 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ055-270730-
Osage-
145 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

At 145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lyndon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Osage City, Overbrook, Lyndon, Quenemo, Melvern, Olivet and Pomona
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3869 9551 3851 9551 3844 9575 3868 9592
      3880 9551 3878 9550 3870 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 240DEG 20KT 3859 9575

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
201 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ011-023-024-039-270800-
Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Nemaha-
201 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...EAST
CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE...JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTIES UNTIL
300 AM CDT...

At 200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles west of Emmett to Auburn. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Topeka, Holton, Tecumseh, Hoyt, Wetmore, Mayetta,
Whiting, Denison, Circleville, Netawaka, Soldier and Potawatomi
Reservation.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 184 and 186.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3967 9579 3965 9579 3965 9556 3942 9557
      3942 9559 3911 9560 3907 9560 3906 9559
      3907 9554 3907 9551 3905 9550 3904 9551
      3901 9556 3946 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 237DEG 27KT 3932 9616 3891 9581

Baerg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
208 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ020-034-270745-
Cloud-Ottawa-
208 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND CLOUD
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Concordia to 7 miles
northeast of Glasco to 7 miles northeast of Barnard. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Clyde, Miltonvale, Glasco, Delphos and Aurora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3945 9793 3947 9790 3963 9778 3963 9737
      3936 9737 3917 9770 3925 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 280DEG 41KT 3962 9761 3941 9772 3927 9796

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
224 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     HAIL             5 NE MORGANVILLE        39.52N 97.13W
05/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ026-040-270900-
Jefferson-Douglas-
306 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 306 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clinton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Perry, McLouth, Lecompton, Clinton, Lone Star, Pleasant
Grove, Clinton Lake and Williamstown.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 193 and 205.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3880 9534 3888 9550 3940 9518 3897 9519
      3896 9517 3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511
      3896 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 216DEG 26KT 3889 9537

Baerg