Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Latest water vapor satellite loop shows a mid level trough over
western Montana and western Wyoming at 1945Z. Profilers show some
perturbations emanating from the Rockies out into the high plains .
Surface analysis had a dryline in eastern Colorado along or just
east of the front range with a warm front extending from southeast
Wyoming through northwest Kansas and into central Kansas at 18Z.
Isolated storms continue to fire along the frontal boundary this
afternoon in an unstable and moist environment with around 40 kts of
effective shear. CAMS have had a difficult time resolving the
convection today as they have not done well with the development in
central Kansas along the warm front. Outflow from earlier convection
helped to increase convergence along the warm front for additional
storm development.

For tonight, the mid level wave will move eastward increasing
forcing for ascent across the central Plains. Expect storms to fire
along the front range still and then congeal into a forward moving
MCS across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas tonight. Storms in
central Kansas may weaken as they move into a less favorable
environment before reaching north central Kansas. Increasing low
level jet will increase moisture advection into central and eastern
Kansas tonight as seen in elongating moisture transport vectors.
High PW air will be somewhere between 1 and 2 inches tonight across
central and eastern Kansas. Expect high precipitation efficiency
with the storms as they move eastward and expect some training of
storms along the southwest flank of the MCS. Would not be surprised
to see some 3 plus inches in some locations tonight. WIll continue
with the Flash Flood Watch for tonight into Thursday morning. In
addition on the south flank of the convection forecast soundings
suggest storms may remain surface based with sweeping low level
profiles as seen in hodographs, keeping the threat for a few
tornadoes through a good portion of the night. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main hazards with the convection.

Thursday will pose another challenge depending on how far south the
outflow boundary goes across the forecast area. Models suggest that
the front and outflow boundary may set up across parts of northeast
and east central Kansas near the Turnpike. Another round of severe
convection is expected across northeast and east central Kansas with
the higher probability near and south of the boundary in the
afternoon. Convection may develop by early afternoon and then move
southeast out of the area by early evening. All modes of severe
weather will be possible once again.

Dry weather with cooler temperatures are expected for Friday through
Saturday under the influence of a mid level ridge as well as a
surface ridge into northeast Kansas. Rain chances return late in the
weekend into early next week as a series of waves moves through the
nearly westerly mid level flow across the Plains. Highs will be in
the 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Uncertainty in the evolution of convection overnight remains with
scattered TSRA clustering west of KMHK while another cluster of
TSRA centers over southern NE. Added TSRA at KMHK where storms are
most likely to impact the area, with lesser confidence at
KTOP/KFOE as short term models poorly handle the line of TSRA with
some suggestion it passes just north of terminals aft 10Z.
Therefore went with VCTS aft 10Z with activity clearing the sites
between 13Z and 15Z. Additional TSRA is possible along the
boundary by mid afternoon, although coverage should remain
scattered and clear the sites before 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>037.

Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ012-024-026-
038>040-055-056.

&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272315-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
612 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into north central
Kansas this evening and through northeast and east central Kansas
overnight. With storms expected to be in a large cluster,
damaging winds up to 80 mph and large hail up to golf ball sizes
are the primary hazards. Although a tornado can not be ruled out
if a discrete storm develops south of the main cluster.

The thunderstorms are forecast to be efficient rain producers as
well, with some locations possibly receiving 1 to 3 inches of
rain in a short period of time. Because of this, a flash flood
watch has been issued for tonight and into Thursday morning for
areas along and north of a line from Ottawa to Junction City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms could redevelop across east central Kansas
Thursday afternoon. Again large hail, damaging winds and very
heavy rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage, large hail and rainfall
amounts over one inch to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE CONCORDIA         39.55N 97.65W
05/26/2021  M54 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCNK CONCORDIA.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE CONCORDIA         39.55N 97.65W
05/26/2021  M54 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCNK CONCORDIA.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ037-270630-
Morris-
1237 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near White City to 5 miles east of Burdick.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, White City, Dwight, Wilsey, Parkerville, Dunlap,
Latimer, Council Grove Lake and Burdick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3881 9687 3887 9665 3887 9650
      3883 9650 3883 9639 3874 9639 3874 9635
      3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 257DEG 20KT 3877 9676 3855 9675

Baerg

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