Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Topeka, KS

583 
WGUS43 KTOP 272117
FLWTOP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSC127-281200-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210528T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris KS-
417 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Topeka has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Morris County in east central Kansas...

* Until 700 AM CDT Friday.

* At 417 PM CDT, local law enforcement flooding in Dunlap due to 
  heavy rainfall. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Flooding along Rock Creek and in Dunlap is expected to continue 
  through tonight.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Council Grove, Wilsey and Dunlap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you 
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9670 3864 9669 3868 9639 3864 9635
      3863 9635 3861 9635 3859 9635 3857 9635
      3852 9636

$$

53

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
535 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Short term models and CAMs have been struggling with the
convection, but recent radar trends suggest we are finally seeing
a more organized MCS developing across north central KS. 07Z
surface obs show a relatively moist airmass still over east
central KS while the latest 850MB profiler data shows the low
level jet beginning to veer more to the south-southwest with
decent speed convergence into east central KS. The continued
advection of warm moist air should be enough for storms to
continue into eastern parts of the forecast area through the mid
morning hours. At this time, I would anticipate the track of these
storms to be south of the latest HRRR depiction along the better
theta-e gradient into east central KS. The main uncertainty in the
short term forecast is whether storms continue through the
morning pushing an outflow through much of the CWA or is there a
break in precip allowing the airmass to recover as a more synoptic
cold front pushes through this afternoon. Unfortunately
confidence in the models is poor given the recent history. But
they still show some redevelopment in the afternoon along the
front. With the surface low analyzed over western KS at 07Z, think
there is still some potential for moisture and instability to
advect ahead of the frontal boundary and causing some
destabilization over east central KS for this afternoon. Because
of this the forecast still has some likely POPs but have backed
off on the categorical wording due to the uncertainty in the
models. Instability looks to be good for severe storms, but
forecast hodographs remain messy through the afternoon with large
inflection in mid levels. This would imply storms would struggle
to remain discrete and multicellular evolutions are more likely.
Have continued with highs in the lower 80s across east central KS
as southerly winds continue to advect warmer air into the area.
Areas near the NEB state line may see some cold air advection by
the early afternoon limiting highs to the middle and upper 70s. By
this evening, the front is forecast to have pushed through much
if not all of the forecast area. This should bring an end to
precip chances as drier air moves in as the better dynamics pass
to the east. Models are showing some high RH values moving in
behind the front indicative of stratus. So have increased cloud
cover for tonight and think this may keep lows from falling to far
into the 40s.

Quiet weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with relatively
dry air over the area thanks to a surface ridge. Also models develop
some shortwave ridging. However by Sunday and through the first half
of next week, the consensus is for another slow moving upper trough
setting up to the west of the forecast area. There are differences
in the timing of shortwave energy moving through the central
plains. So the forecast broad brushes POPs from Sunday through
Wednesday. With the upper trough expected to setup somewhere over the
central plains for much of next week, mid level heights remain
relatively low limiting chances for strong warm air advection. So
the blend of models keeps temps below normal with highs generally
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Timing TS this morning is a blend of extrapolating the latest
radar and the CAMs. Still looks like storms may clear out for some
recovery of the atmosphere. Surface obs still show the synoptic
front just entering northwest KS now. This boundary may be near
the terminals as storms develop early in the afternoon. At this
time CAMs appear to be more scattered in coverage with the
redevelopment so may stick with the VCTS for now. There has been a
consistent signal for some MVFR CIGS moving south overnight. So
will go ahead and introduce the lower clouds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>037.

Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ012-024-
026-038>040-055-056.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-280845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
341 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

This morning's thunderstorms could still produce locally damaging
winds and very heavy rainfall. Severe thunderstorm and flash flood
watches remain in effect. These storms are expected to exit to the
east of the area by mid morning.

Additional thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop over parts of
east central Kansas by the early afternoon today. Some of these
storms may be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and
very heavy rainfall. Areas south of a line from Council Grove to
Topeka stand the better chance of seeing severe weather this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon across east central Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
842 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
05/27/2021                   LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SHED BLOWN DOWN TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
05/27/2021                   RILEY              KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE UPROOTED NEAR BLUEMONT ELEMENTARY
            SCHOOL TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE SILVER LAKE        39.12N 95.84W
05/27/2021  M1.11 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
855 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE SAINT GEORGE      39.11N 96.39W
05/27/2021  E1.30 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
927 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLOOD            WHITE CITY              38.80N 96.74W
05/27/2021                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MORRIS
            COUNTRY INCLUDING THE SKIDDY, DWIGHT AND
            LATIMER AREAS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
958 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE SAINT GEORGE      39.11N 96.39W
05/27/2021  M1.12 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DR