Special Marine Warning 149, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

Spiral bands of heavy rain and gusty winds associated with TD
Claudette will work across the region through the TAF cycle.
Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will accompany the heavy rain
bands. Outside of showers, VFR will prevail with periods of MVFR
cigs. Winds will be gusty during the daytime hours, especially at
ECP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [343 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Tropical Storm Claudette continues to move northeastward across
southern AL this afternoon with spiral rain bands extending
southward into the Gulf. With daytime heating, both these rain
bands as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms between bands
are moving NNE across the region. At least one tornado has already
occurred with these storms, and additional tornadoes will be
possible through at least this evening. A tornado watch remains in
effect for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and portions of SW Georgia
into this evening. Gusty winds have been occuring within these
showers and storms as well. A wind advisory is in effect for the
FL Panhandle. Heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms,
particularly the spiral rain bands as they move slowly NNEward.
Rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be possible, so any
training of storms that develops could lead to flash flooding.
The highest threat for flooding through tomorrow remains across
the western portions of the area. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and portions of SW Georgia
through Sunday.

Overall several rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with
spiral rain bands are expected across the area as Claudette moves
slowly ENEward. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and
tornadoes will remain threats into Sunday.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

Tropical Storm Claudette finally moves over to the Carolinas
Sunday night. This should give somewhat of a lull in showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night before increasing again on Monday with
deep moisture allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms with
daytime heating.

High temperatures on Monday are forecast in the 80s with humid
conditions. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Tuesday rain chances ramp up remarkably again as a cold front
pushes into the area and stalls out. This boundary could serve as
a focus for shower and thunderstorm development on Wednesday
before washing out. Easterly to southeasterly flow returns
Thursday and Friday with a return to a more typical summertime
pattern. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon, although ridging nosing in from the west could help
keep overall coverage on the lower side. High temperatures will
climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s with low temperatures in
the low 70s.

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Claudette continues to push ENEward across A
Alabama this afternoon. Winds have come down enough that the
Tropical Storm Warning will be replaced with a Small Craft
Advisory, although some occasional gusts to gale force are still
possible. Seas will gradually subside tonight through tomorrow
with some lingering surf and rip currents expected. Otherwise,
expect a return to typical summertime boating conditions for the
upcoming week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern is in store today into the upcoming week. The main
concern is the potential for high dispersions above 75 units to
the north of I-10 on Sunday. Otherwise, there are no other fire
weather concerns at this time.

.HYDROLOGY...

With lower rainfall totals than originally anticipated, the river
flooding threat has lowered. While some flash flooding is still
possible, rises on area rivers are forecast to remain near action
stage at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  87  73  86  73 /  60  60  20  60  40
Panama City   76  85  76  85  75 /  70  60  30  60  50
Dothan        73  86  72  86  72 /  80  60  20  50  50
Albany        74  85  74  89  74 /  80  70  20  50  30
Valdosta      73  87  72  87  71 /  50  60  20  50  20
Cross City    75  86  74  86  74 /  40  50  20  50  30
Apalachicola  76  85  76  83  75 /  60  60  30  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for Central Walton-Coastal
     Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Sunday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Clay-Early-Quitman-
     Randolph.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Sunday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE OZARK              31.46N 85.64W
06/19/2021                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN IN OZARK.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TORNADO          1 SSE PETERSON HILL     31.77N 84.84W
06/19/2021                   RANDOLPH           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 82 THAT COINCIDE WITH
            OBSERVED TDS.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SE BEACON HILL        29.92N 85.38W
06/19/2021  E41 MPH          GULF               FL   MESONET

            FSWN GULF VETERANS MEMORIAL PARK RECORDED A
            WIND GUST OF 41 MPH.

&&

RH

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