Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2021
Tornado Watch 561
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 11, 2021, 1:27 AM CST for 57 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 11, 2021, 1:27 AM CST (07:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 11, 2021, 8:00 AM CST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 57 counties
Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 70%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 40%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 1:27 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Metcalfe, Warren | 48 min |
| Dec 11, 1:28 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Franklin, Scott | 20 min |
| Dec 11, 1:55 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Barren, Green, Hart, Larue, Marion, Metcalfe and 1 more | 50 min |
| Dec 11, 2:16 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Anderson, Franklin, Harrison, Henry, Nelson, Scott and 3 more | 29 min |
| Dec 11, 2:16 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Butler, Logan, Simpson, Warren | 44 min |
| Dec 11, 2:22 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Boyle, Casey, Larue, Lincoln, Marion, Mercer and 1 more | 38 min |
| Dec 11, 2:59 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Boyle, Casey, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison and 1 more | 46 min |
| Dec 11, 3:00 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LMK | Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Logan and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 11, 3:13 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Logan and 2 more | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 3:20 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Harrison, Jessamine, Nicholas and 2 more | 25 min |
| Dec 11, 3:38 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Clark, Madison | 37 min |
| Dec 11, 3:45 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bath, Estill, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell | 30 min |
| Dec 11, 3:47 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Allen, Barren, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hardin and 7 more | 28 min |
| Dec 11, 3:55 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bath, Fleming, Menifee, Rowan | 35 min |
| Dec 11, 3:56 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LMK | Breckinridge, Bullitt, Franklin, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin and 6 more | 3 hr |
| Dec 11, 4:01 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Garrard, Madison | 18 min |
| Dec 11, 4:13 AM CST | Tornado Warning | JKL | Estill, Lee, Montgomery, Powell | 17 min |
| Dec 11, 4:18 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Adair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Cumberland, Green and 5 more | 42 min |
| Dec 11, 4:23 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Clark, Garrard, Lincoln, Madison | 37 min |
| Dec 11, 4:27 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Estill, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Powell, Rowan and 1 more | 48 min |
| Dec 11, 4:27 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Cumberland, Monroe | 33 min |
| Dec 11, 4:43 AM CST | Tornado Warning | JKL | Estill, Powell | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 4:49 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley | 41 min |
| Dec 11, 4:52 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LMK | Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Russell | 23 min |
| Dec 11, 4:56 AM CST | Tornado Warning | JKL | McCreary, Wayne | 19 min |
| Dec 11, 4:58 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Adair, Boyle, Casey, Clark, Fayette, Garrard and 6 more | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 4:58 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Adair, Boyle, Casey, Green, Lincoln, Marion and 2 more | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 5:28 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LMK | Clark, Garrard, Lincoln, Madison | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 5:30 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Clay, Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Whitley | 30 min |
| Dec 11, 5:38 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bath, Estill, Jackson, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and 3 more | 37 min |
| Dec 11, 5:53 AM CST | Tornado Warning | JKL | Knox, Whitley | 22 min |
| Dec 11, 5:58 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bell, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, Leslie and 4 more | 32 min |
| Dec 11, 6:08 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bath, Estill, Jackson, Lee, Menifee, Morgan and 4 more | 37 min |
| Dec 11, 6:24 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bell, Clay, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Letcher and 2 more | 51 min |
| Dec 11, 6:39 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Breathitt, Elliott, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley and 2 more | 36 min |
| Dec 11, 7:15 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bell, Knox, Whitley | 30 min |
| Dec 11, 7:20 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | McCreary, Whitley | 3 hr |
| Dec 11, 7:45 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | Bell, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Whitley | 30 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
- Mesoscale Discussion 2003 Tornado watch 554
- Mesoscale Discussion 2004 Severe potential...watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 2006 Tornado watch 554
- Mesoscale Discussion 2008 Tornado watch 554
- Mesoscale Discussion 2009 Severe potential...tornado watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 2010 Tornado watch 554
- Mesoscale Discussion 2014 Tornado watch 561
- Mesoscale Discussion 2018 Tornado watch 561...562
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 182 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -168 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 593 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 391 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 370 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
230
WWUS20 KWNS 110723
SEL1
SPC WW 110723
KYZ000-111400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and eastern Kentucky
* Effective this Saturday morning from 225 AM until 900 AM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...A belt of strong-severe thunderstorms, including at least
a couple intense supercells with potential for significant/damaging
tornadoes, will affect the watch area past daybreak. The
overlapping counties affected replace part of tornado watch 554.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles east southeast of Bowling
Green KY to 50 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 554...WW 557...WW
558...WW 559...WW 560...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...EdwardsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 6:21 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 28 more | 10 hr |
| Dec 10, 6:22 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fulton, Graves, Hickman | 53 min |
| Dec 10, 7:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fulton | 64 min |
| Dec 10, 8:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 26 more | 85 min |
| Dec 10, 8:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, Marshall | 57 min |
| Dec 10, 9:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caldwell, Graves, Hopkins, Lyon, Marshall | 57 min |
| Dec 10, 10:09 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more | 96 min |
| Dec 10, 10:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caldwell, Grayson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Ohio | 61 min |
| Dec 10, 11:03 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 10, 11:08 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 8 more | 67 min |
| Dec 10, 11:20 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 10, 11:28 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 92 min |
| Dec 10, 11:36 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calloway, Christian, Logan, Simpson, Todd, Trigg | 54 min |
| Dec 10, 11:53 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Breckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade and 3 more | 67 min |
| Dec 11, 1:02 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 51 more | 88 min |
| Dec 11, 1:05 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Logan and 2 more | 55 min |
| Dec 11, 2:51 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyle, Casey, Clark, Estill, Garrard, Jessamine and 4 more | 54 min |
| Dec 11, 5:32 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Breathitt, Clark, Clay, Estill, Jackson and 18 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.