Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 561

December 11, 202157 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 11, 2021, 1:27 AM CST for 57 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 11, 2021, 1:27 AM CST (07:27 UTC)
Expired
Dec 11, 2021, 8:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 57 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 11, 1:27 AM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedLMKBarren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Metcalfe, Warren48 min
Dec 11, 1:28 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKFranklin, Scott20 min
Dec 11, 1:55 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKBarren, Green, Hart, Larue, Marion, Metcalfe and 1 more50 min
Dec 11, 2:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAnderson, Franklin, Harrison, Henry, Nelson, Scott and 3 more29 min
Dec 11, 2:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLMKButler, Logan, Simpson, Warren44 min
Dec 11, 2:22 AM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedLMKBoyle, Casey, Larue, Lincoln, Marion, Mercer and 1 more38 min
Dec 11, 2:59 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKBoyle, Casey, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison and 1 more46 min
Dec 11, 3:00 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLMKBarren, Butler, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Logan and 3 more6 hr
Dec 11, 3:13 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Logan and 2 more32 min
Dec 11, 3:20 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBourbon, Clark, Fayette, Harrison, Jessamine, Nicholas and 2 more25 min
Dec 11, 3:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKClark, Madison37 min
Dec 11, 3:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Estill, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell30 min
Dec 11, 3:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hardin and 7 more28 min
Dec 11, 3:55 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Fleming, Menifee, Rowan35 min
Dec 11, 3:56 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLMKBreckinridge, Bullitt, Franklin, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin and 6 more3 hr
Dec 11, 4:01 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKGarrard, Madison18 min
Dec 11, 4:13 AM CSTTornado WarningJKLEstill, Lee, Montgomery, Powell17 min
Dec 11, 4:18 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Cumberland, Green and 5 more42 min
Dec 11, 4:23 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKClark, Garrard, Lincoln, Madison37 min
Dec 11, 4:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLEstill, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Powell, Rowan and 1 more48 min
Dec 11, 4:27 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKCumberland, Monroe33 min
Dec 11, 4:43 AM CSTTornado WarningJKLEstill, Powell32 min
Dec 11, 4:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLMcCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley41 min
Dec 11, 4:52 AM CSTTornado WarningLMKCasey, Clinton, Cumberland, Russell23 min
Dec 11, 4:56 AM CSTTornado WarningJKLMcCreary, Wayne19 min
Dec 11, 4:58 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Boyle, Casey, Clark, Fayette, Garrard and 6 more32 min
Dec 11, 4:58 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Boyle, Casey, Green, Lincoln, Marion and 2 more32 min
Dec 11, 5:28 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKClark, Garrard, Lincoln, Madison32 min
Dec 11, 5:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLClay, Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Whitley30 min
Dec 11, 5:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Estill, Jackson, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and 3 more37 min
Dec 11, 5:53 AM CSTTornado WarningJKLKnox, Whitley22 min
Dec 11, 5:58 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Clay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, Leslie and 4 more32 min
Dec 11, 6:08 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Estill, Jackson, Lee, Menifee, Morgan and 4 more37 min
Dec 11, 6:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Clay, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Letcher and 2 more51 min
Dec 11, 6:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Elliott, Lee, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley and 2 more36 min
Dec 11, 7:15 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Knox, Whitley30 min
Dec 11, 7:20 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJKLMcCreary, Whitley3 hr
Dec 11, 7:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Whitley30 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 182 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 391 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
182 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-168 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
391 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
370 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

230 
WWUS20 KWNS 110723
SEL1  
SPC WW 110723
KYZ000-111400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and eastern Kentucky

* Effective this Saturday morning from 225 AM until 900 AM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...A belt of strong-severe thunderstorms, including at least
a couple intense supercells with potential for significant/damaging
tornadoes, will affect the watch area past daybreak.  The
overlapping counties affected replace part of tornado watch 554.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles east southeast of Bowling
Green KY to 50 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 554...WW 557...WW
558...WW 559...WW 560...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 6:21 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 28 more10 hr
Dec 10, 6:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton, Graves, Hickman53 min
Dec 10, 7:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton64 min
Dec 10, 8:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 26 more85 min
Dec 10, 8:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, Marshall57 min
Dec 10, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Graves, Hopkins, Lyon, Marshall57 min
Dec 10, 10:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more96 min
Dec 10, 10:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Grayson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Ohio61 min
Dec 10, 11:03 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more5 hr
Dec 10, 11:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 8 more67 min
Dec 10, 11:20 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 6 more6 hr
Dec 10, 11:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCUnion92 min
Dec 10, 11:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalloway, Christian, Logan, Simpson, Todd, Trigg54 min
Dec 10, 11:53 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBreckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade and 3 more67 min
Dec 11, 1:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 51 more88 min
Dec 11, 1:05 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarren, Butler, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Logan and 2 more55 min
Dec 11, 2:51 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyle, Casey, Clark, Estill, Garrard, Jessamine and 4 more54 min
Dec 11, 5:32 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Breathitt, Clark, Clay, Estill, Jackson and 18 more88 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.