Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2018

December 11, 202124 counties in Kentucky; 8 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 11, 2021, 6:32 AM EST for 24 counties in Kentucky; 8 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 11, 2021, 6:32 AM EST (11:32 UTC)
Expired
Dec 11, 2021, 8:00 AM EST
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 561...562
All 32 counties

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Estill County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Anderson County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Scott County, TN, Union County, TN

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 182 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 391 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
182 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-168 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
391 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
370 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

600 
ACUS11 KWNS 111133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111132 
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-111300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...eastern KY into eastern TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 561...562...

Valid 111132Z - 111300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 561, 562 continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts or a brief spin-up are possible
in the short term across parts of eastern KY into northeast TN.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to decrease in intensity across
portions of eastern KY into adjacent portions of northeast TN early
this morning. This is evident in both radar presentation and
lightning trends. Instability has become very weak while surface
inhibition has increased over the past hour. A few observation sites
have also seen a decrease in surface dewpoints as well. Deep-layer
flow is becoming increasingly veered as well per VWP data from KJKL.
While sporadic strong gusts or a brief spin-up remain possible in
the short term, the overall severe threat is expected to rapidly
diminish with eastward extent. A new watch downstream from WW 561
and 562 across eastern KY/northeast TN is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36478355 36188378 35968413 35888448 35988497 36178519
            36468521 37198486 37648447 37968419 38098382 38098369
            38078322 37888296 37568292 37098316 36478355

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 7:21 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 28 more10 hr
Dec 10, 7:22 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton, Graves, Hickman53 min
Dec 10, 8:41 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFulton64 min
Dec 10, 9:35 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 26 more85 min
Dec 10, 9:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, Marshall57 min
Dec 10, 10:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Graves, Hopkins, Lyon, Marshall57 min
Dec 10, 11:09 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more96 min
Dec 10, 11:44 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Grayson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Ohio61 min
Dec 11, 12:03 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more5 hr
Dec 11, 12:08 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 8 more67 min
Dec 11, 12:20 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBoone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 6 more6 hr
Dec 11, 12:28 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCUnion92 min
Dec 11, 12:36 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalloway, Christian, Logan, Simpson, Todd, Trigg54 min
Dec 11, 12:53 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBreckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade and 3 more67 min
Dec 11, 2:02 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 51 more88 min
Dec 11, 2:05 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarren, Butler, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Logan and 2 more55 min
Dec 11, 2:27 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 51 more7 hr
Dec 11, 3:51 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyle, Casey, Clark, Estill, Garrard, Jessamine and 4 more54 min
Dec 10, 10:40 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett, Decatur and 24 more2 hr
Dec 10, 11:44 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett, Davidson and 34 more6 hr
Dec 11, 3:00 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Benton, Cannon, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester and 41 more90 min
Dec 11, 3:51 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheatham, Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson, Wilson84 min
Dec 11, 4:41 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland and 26 more6 hr
Dec 11, 7:15 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Coffee, Cumberland, DeKalb and 12 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.