Mesoscale Discussion 2009

Issued

Dec 11, 2021, 1:02 AM CST (07:02 UTC)

Expired

Dec 11, 2021, 2:30 AM CST

In force

88 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...tornado watch likely

Chance of a watch

95%

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 561Dec 11, 1:25 AM CST

618 
ACUS11 KWNS 110703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110702 
KYZ000-110830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 110702Z - 110830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes will continue across parts of
central into eastern KY overnight. A new watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Severe storms, in particular just southwest of
Louisville, and to the west of Bowling Green, continue to exhibit
rotation and periodic tornado debris signatures in radar data. The
activity across north-central KY is nearing the edges of WW 554,
while the south-central KY storms will not move out of the watch
before it is set to expire at 08z. The environment will remain
favorable for severe storms and tornadoes for a few more hours as
convection tracks east into eastern KY. 

The eastward extent of the severe threat is somewhat uncertain,
though low level moisture decreases considerably from roughly Rowan
to Bell counties in eastern KY, where dewpoints are generally in the
mid/upper 50s. This likely delineates the eastward extent of the
greater severe threat and a new watch across eastern portions of WFO
LMK and western portions of WFO JKL's domain will likely be needed
soon.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   36648604 36748631 37008659 37468635 38298517 38498473
            38578438 38558408 38388352 38118331 37828316 37558324
            37328344 36888394 36638466 36638551 36638581 36648604

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.