Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 154

May 8, 202118 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 8, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC)
Expired
May 9, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt

Counties Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

12 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPRepublic33 min
May 8, 7:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPRepublic, Washington49 min
May 8, 8:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPMarshall, Washington52 min
May 8, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDickinson57 min
May 8, 9:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPGeary, Morris, Riley51 min
May 8, 9:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPGeary, Pottawatomie, Riley24 min
May 8, 10:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPGeary, Jackson, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley, Shawnee and 1 more42 min
May 8, 10:11 PM CDTTornado WarningTOPPottawatomie, Riley, Wabaunsee21 min
May 8, 10:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPLyon, Osage, Shawnee, Wabaunsee47 min
May 8, 11:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPJackson, Jefferson, Shawnee45 min
May 8, 11:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDickinson45 min
May 9, 12:15 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTOPShawnee, Wabaunsee4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2021-05-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2021-05-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 179 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1087 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
242 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

884 
WWUS20 KWNS 082328
SEL4  
SPC WW 082328
KSZ000-090600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
630 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Kansas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 630 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening
along a warm front over northeast Kansas and track across the watch
area.  Very large hail and isolated tornadoes are the possible early
this evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with the
storms after dark.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of Concordia KS to
30 miles east of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 3:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 7 more2 hr
May 8, 4:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Hodgeman, Jewell, Lincoln and 11 more6 hr
May 8, 6:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Barton, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson and 29 more114 min
May 8, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.