Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 561
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2021, 3:24 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; Webster County, Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2021, 3:24 PM CDT (20:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2021, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Barton County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Smith County, KS, Webster County, NE
The radar
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -649 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2080 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
690
ACUS11 KWNS 082025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082024
KSZ000-NEZ000-082230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021
Areas affected...portions of central KS and extreme south-central NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 082024Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the 5-7 pm CDT/22z-00z time frame, with a risk for primarily large
hail and damaging winds. Observational trends are being monitored
and a watch is likely to 22z.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a high-based
cumulus field becoming better established over portions of southwest
and central KS near a triple point north of Dodge City. A warm front
extends north/east from the triple point across northern KS, while a
cold front continues moving southward over western KS. Strong
heating/mixing of mid-upper 50s surface dew points has resulted in
moderate-strong MLCAPE beneath an EML within the warm sector, with
further erosion of MLCINH contributing to thunderstorm development
in the 22z-00z time frame as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches
from the west.
Isolated supercell storms developing initially near the triple point
will move east-northeast in the vicinity of the warm front with a
risk for primarily large hail. Damaging winds will become more
likely with time, and some risk for a tornado may also exist,
especially with discrete storms near the warm front. Thunderstorm
coverage should increase through early evening along the cold front
as it advances eastward over north-central KS.
Trends continue to be monitored and a watch is likely by 22z.
..Bunting/Thompson.. 05/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37889922 37939965 38319993 39099957 39599931 39979920
40209872 40189814 39969796 39549797 39279795 38979795
38719796 38239814 37889922SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 4:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Hodgeman, Jewell, Lincoln and 11 more | 6 hr |
| May 8, 6:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Barton, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson and 29 more | 114 min |
| May 8, 6:30 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Douglas, Franklin, Geary and 12 more | 7 hr |
| May 8, 6:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.