Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 563
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2021, 6:06 PM CDT for 35 counties in Kansas; Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri; 11 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2021, 6:06 PM CDT (23:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2021, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 153
All 48 counties
Atchison County, KS, Barton County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Franklin County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Webster County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1087 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 179 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 242 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
715
ACUS11 KWNS 082306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082306
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021
Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Far Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...
Valid 082306Z - 090100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.
SUMMARY...Wind-damage, large hail and a tornado threat will continue
to be possible across central and northern Kansas into southern
Nebraska over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance will be
needed soon across parts of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and
far northwest Missouri.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two clusters of strong to
severe thunderstorms. The first is located in west-central Kansas
with the second in far south-central Nebraska. These storms are
located along an axis of moderate instability with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. A 994 mb surface
low is located over southwest Kansas. The low is associated with a
shortwave trough over far eastern Colorado, evident on water vapor
imagery. As the shortwave moves eastward low-level flow will
increase across the central Plains. This will support the
development of a MCS. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Hastings shows 0-6
km shear 55 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 350 m2/s2.
This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will support
supercells with large hail and possibly a tornado threat. As the
storms merge into a bowing line segment, the wind-damage threat will
increase later this evening.
..Broyles.. 05/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39559976 38549970 37929958 37899897 38369795 38769591
39179507 39609489 40069492 40449540 40559623 40489863
40109960 39559976SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 3:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 8, 4:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Ellis, Ellsworth, Hodgeman, Jewell, Lincoln and 11 more | 6 hr |
| May 8, 6:30 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Douglas, Franklin, Geary and 12 more | 7 hr |
| May 8, 6:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.