Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 564

May 8, 202125 counties in Kansas; 35 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT for 25 counties in Kansas; 35 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 8, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT (02:15 UTC)
Expired
May 8, 2021, 11:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 154
All 60 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Brown County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Polk County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-05-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 377 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-05-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
377 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-170 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1653 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
362 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
6.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

707 
ACUS11 KWNS 090215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090215 
MOZ000-KSZ000-090415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

Valid 090215Z - 090415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage, large hail and tornado threat will continue
late this evening, affecting northeast Kansas and parts of Missouri.
The severe threat will likely persist into the early overnight
period necessitating a new watch further to the east.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms located from near Salina, Kansas northward into
far southeast Nebraska. These storms are located along the northern
edge of a moderately unstable airmass. The instability and moisture
gradient extends east-southeastward across eastern Kansas into
western and southern Missouri, along which a warm front is analyzed.
Storm coverage will continue to increase with a linear MCS
developing and moving southeastward along this gradient. As a cold
pool organizes, supercells that remain intact as the line forms,
will continue to have a threat for large hail and wind damage. The
WSR-88D VWP at Topeka, Kansas shows a looped hodograph with 0-3 km
storm relative helicity near 450 m2/s2. This will continue the
tornado threat, especially with supercells. The wind-damage threat
is expected to increase as the linear MCS matures, continuing after
midnight as the line moves into western Missouri.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38699671 38069571 37449478 37079414 37009320 37499240
            38279220 39109257 39959458 39999598 39389675 38699671

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 8, 9:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBourbon, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami, Wyandotte7 hr
May 8, 11:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDouglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami and 1 more2 hr
May 9, 1:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Linn, Miami96 min
May 9, 3:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamden, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Dent, Douglas and 14 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.