Mesoscale Discussion 566

Issued

May 9, 2021, 1:39 AM CDT (06:39 UTC)

Expired

May 9, 2021, 3:15 AM CDT

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 156

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

093 
ACUS11 KWNS 090639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090639 
MOZ000-KSZ000-090815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...portions of western and central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...

Valid 090639Z - 090815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across portions of western and
central Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing MCS moving
eastward/southeastward across western and into central Missouri at
this time, straddling a warm-frontal boundary that extends
southeastward across the state.  Instability diminishes with
eastward extent into eastern Missouri, and thus more vigorous
convection is preferentially developing on southwestern portions of
the band, while gradual weakening occurs farther northeast.  As a
result, a continued/gradual turn more to the southeast is expected,
with convection spreading across toward/across the Ozarks of
southern Missouri with time, and this tendency reinforced by gradual
veering of the low-level jet overnight.

With that said, while convection will persist overnight, overall
intensity is expected to very gradually decrease, and thus severe
potential is likely to become more isolated/local, and tied to
briefly stronger updrafts within the band.  Therefore, while still
well-contained within the watch, possible future need for a new WW
downstream remains uncertain at this time, and will continue to be
monitored.

..Goss.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38669502 38709447 39129359 39519344 39369273 38699185
            37359190 37279287 37359387 37799497 38499507 38669502

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.