Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 567
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2021, 3:46 AM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; 20 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 9, 2021, 3:46 AM CDT (08:46 UTC)
- Expired
- May 9, 2021, 5:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 30 counties
Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -429 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2095 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 177 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 370 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
355
ACUS11 KWNS 090846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090846
MOZ000-ARZ000-091045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021
Areas affected...southern Missouri/northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090846Z - 091045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally strong storms -- a few capable of hail and/or wind
gusts near severe levels -- will be possible across the Ozarks
region this morning. However, low-end/isolated risk that is
expected to persist appears likely to remain too low to warrant new
WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a mature, arcing band of
thunderstorms moving southeastward across southwestern and central
Missouri at this time. Meanwhile, isolated storms have developed
farther south, across northwestern Arkansas/southwestern Missouri,
in response to increasing low-level warm advection associated with a
veering low-level jet.
Amply steep lapse rates across the region are providing sufficient
-- though slightly elevated -- CAPE, on the order of 500 to 1500
J/kg. This -- combined with moderate/very weakly veering flow in
the cloud-bearing layer -- is supporting a few stronger updrafts,
and will likely continue to do so as convection spreads across the
Ozarks. However, with severe potential expected to remain rather
low-end and isolated, a WW is not currently anticipated. We will
continue to monitor convective evolution across the area, for any
signs of increased severe risk.
..Goss/Guyer.. 05/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35599418 36579347 37109373 37499419 38279308 38109231
37389112 36869121 36179109 35889236 35599418SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 12:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 46 more | 91 min |
| May 9, 1:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 33 more | 8 hr |
| May 9, 2:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more | 7 hr |
| May 9, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland and 31 more | 93 min |
| May 9, 5:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 16 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 5:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis | 87 min |
| May 8, 9:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Benton, Buchanan, Caldwell, Camden and 29 more | 2 hr |
| May 8, 9:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bates, Benton, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell, Camden and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 8, 11:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Clay, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette | 2 hr |
| May 9, 1:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates, Benton, Boone, Camden, Cass, Cedar and 21 more | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.