Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527

Issued

Oct 15, 2021, 12:28 PM CDT (17:28 UTC)

Expired

Oct 15, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT

In force

9 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

10%

Ten or more severe wind reports

50%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

40%

Ten or more severe hail reports

20%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1863 Severe potential...watch likelyOct 15, 11:14 AM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1866 Severe thunderstorm watch 527Oct 15, 2:52 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1867 Severe potential...watch possibleOct 15, 5:06 PM CDT

985 
WWUS20 KWNS 151726
SEL7  
SPC WW 151726
ARZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-160100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Arkansas
  Southwest Kentucky
  Far southeast Missouri
  Far northwest Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least a few supercells embedded within an organizing
cluster are expected this afternoon across the Mid-South. Damaging
winds should be the main hazard, but a tornado or two and isolated
severe hail are also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest
of Hot Springs AR to 65 miles northeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Grams

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.