Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454

August 20, 202111 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 20, 2021, 7:40 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 20, 2021, 7:40 PM CDT (00:40 UTC)
Expired
Aug 21, 2021, 12:41 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 28 counties

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Osage County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 8:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXDoniphan20 min
Aug 20, 8:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXDoniphan44 min
Aug 20, 8:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPGeary, Lyon, Morris, Wabaunsee28 min
Aug 20, 9:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDouglas, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee32 min
Aug 20, 9:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPJackson, Jefferson, Shawnee37 min
Aug 20, 10:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDouglas, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee45 min
Aug 20, 10:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPJefferson37 min
Aug 20, 10:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte46 min
Aug 20, 11:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPOsage24 min
Aug 20, 11:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDouglas, Franklin, Osage25 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3676 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 145 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3676 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1017 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
242 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.1
Supercell composite
18.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

925 
WWUS20 KWNS 210038
SEL4  
SPC WW 210038
KSZ000-MOZ000-210700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms have congealed into a linear structure across
northeast Kansas, and these storms are expected to persist while
spreading into northwest Missouri through the early overnight hours.
 The strongest embedded storms/bowing segments will be capable of
producing damaging outflow gusts of 60-70 mph.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast
of Saint Joseph MO to 35 miles southwest of Olathe KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451...WW 452...WW 453...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 7:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 29 more84 min
Aug 20, 9:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 23 more83 min
Aug 20, 11:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley and 7 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.