Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1573

August 20, 202113 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 20, 2021, 11:39 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 20, 2021, 11:39 PM CDT (04:39 UTC)
Expired
Aug 21, 2021, 1:45 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 454

Counties Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Bates County, MO, Cass County, MO, Henry County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Vernon County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3676 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 145 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3676 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1017 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
242 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.1
Supercell composite
18.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

950 
ACUS11 KWNS 210440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210439 
MOZ000-KSZ000-210645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 210439Z - 210645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong, to isolated severe, thunderstorms will propagate
southeast across southeastern KS and western MO. Locally damaging
winds appear to be the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Veered LLJ across northern OK into southwestern MO will
gradually weaken and become more westerly during the early morning
hours. As deep-layer flow becomes more westerly, ongoing corridor of
thunderstorms will continue to propagate southeast across
southeastern KS/western MO. Gusty winds have been common with this
activity but most wind reports are not measured severe, though 40+kt
winds are common in the Kansas City metro region. Given the lack of
large-scale upper support, convective outflow will be modulated by
an expansive precip shield that has evolved across northwestern MO
into east-central KS. It appears a new watch is not warranted for
this marginally severe activity.

..Darrow.. 08/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37509755 38829425 38789312 38109362 37039655 37509755

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 7:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 29 more84 min
Aug 20, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson and 5 more5 hr
Aug 20, 9:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 23 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.