Mesoscale Discussion 1572

Issued

Aug 20, 2021, 9:37 PM CDT (02:37 UTC)

Expired

Aug 20, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

83 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 454

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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850 
ACUS11 KWNS 210237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210237 
MOZ000-KSZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 210237Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may persist for a few
more hours across WW 454 and vicinity. New watch issuance is not
anticipated, however, convective trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of intense/severe storms continues to
track eastward across portions of central into northeast Kansas and
entering northwest Missouri. Several reports of damaging winds have
occurred with the transition to a linear convective mode. This
threat may persist for a few more hours where cold pools are able to
remain colocated with the parent convection and overcome the onset
of inhibition amid a very convectively unstable downstream
environment (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg). The presence of a developing
low-level jet and attendant low-level shear should also promote
convective maintenance in the short-term. However, storms should
eventually be overcome by increasing convective inhibition and a
lack of upper-level support amid weak deep-layer shear.

The current expectation is for the strongest storms to remain
confined to WW 454 and isolated adjacent areas south/southwest of
the watch across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. At
this time, a new watch issuance is not anticipated, however,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for any sustained
convective elements that may pose a broader risk for damaging wind
gusts.

..Karstens.. 08/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39939516 39869452 39449400 38019460 37669562 37329821
            37999836 38629720 39289626 39799575 39939516

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.