Alert archive / Ohio / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433

August 12, 202118 counties in Ohio; 17 counties in Pennsylvania; Brooke County, Hancock County, Ohio County, West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 12, 2021, 3:48 PM EDT for 18 counties in Ohio; 17 counties in Pennsylvania; Brooke County, Hancock County, Ohio County, West Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 12, 2021, 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC)
Expired
Aug 12, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 38 counties

Ashtabula County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Greene County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Ohio County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 4:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLEPortage, Summit51 min
Aug 12, 4:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLEGeauga, Portage, Summit, Trumbull63 min
Aug 12, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Venango44 min
Aug 12, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLEMahoning, Portage68 min
Aug 12, 4:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZForest, Venango35 min
Aug 12, 4:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLECrawford47 min
Aug 12, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZButler, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango42 min
Aug 12, 5:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLECrawford39 min
Aug 12, 5:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Jefferson40 min
Aug 12, 5:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCLECrawford39 min
Aug 12, 5:43 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZButler, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango3 hr
Aug 12, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZButler, Lawrence47 min
Aug 12, 5:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Butler52 min
Aug 12, 6:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZJefferson24 min
Aug 12, 6:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Butler, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango50 min
Aug 12, 6:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZArmstrong, Butler, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango3 hr
Aug 12, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Washington42 min
Aug 12, 6:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Armstrong, Butler, Clarion, Indiana, Jefferson and 1 more67 min
Aug 12, 6:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Harrison, Jefferson20 min
Aug 12, 6:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Forest, Jefferson37 min
Aug 12, 7:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Armstrong, Fayette, Indiana, Washington, Westmoreland81 min
Aug 12, 7:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZAllegheny, Washington, Westmoreland3 hr
Aug 12, 7:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana34 min
Aug 12, 7:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Guernsey, Harrison, Tuscarawas59 min
Aug 12, 7:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Washington37 min
Aug 12, 8:36 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZJefferson3 hr
Aug 12, 8:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZJefferson51 min
Aug 12, 8:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Fayette, Indiana, Washington, Westmoreland41 min
Aug 12, 9:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZCarroll, Columbiana, Harrison, Jefferson, Tuscarawas60 min
Aug 12, 9:57 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZFayette, Washington, Westmoreland2 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1075 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 163 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1075 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
163 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

558 
WWUS20 KWNS 121945
SEL3  
SPC WW 121945
OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-130200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeastern Ohio
  Western Pennsylvania
  The northern West Virginia Panhandle
  Lake Erie

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form in northeastern Ohio, 
and storm coverage/intensity is expected to increase through the
remainder of the afternoon as storms move into western Pennsylvania.
 The storm environment favors clusters of storms with damaging winds
of 60-70 mph, and the strongest storms may also produce isolated
large hail near 1 inch diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south
southwest of Cleveland OH to 35 miles north northeast of Latrobe PA.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 431...WW 432...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28035.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 3:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cuyahoga, Geauga and 13 more58 min
Aug 12, 6:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBelmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning83 min
Aug 12, 11:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSusquehanna2 hr
Aug 12, 12:19 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Blair, Butler, Cambria, Cameron and 20 more116 min
Aug 12, 1:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre and 27 more9 hr
Aug 12, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne and 1 more6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.