Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425

August 11, 202115 counties in Maryland; 88 counties in Virginia; 6 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 11, 2021, 2:02 PM EDT for 15 counties in Maryland; 88 counties in Virginia; 6 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2021, 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC)
Expired
Aug 11, 2021, 8:19 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
50 kt
All 109 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

42 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 2:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPage, Rockingham39 min
Aug 11, 2:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXRockingham, City of Harrisonburg49 min
Aug 11, 2:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt, Craig, Franklin, Montgomery, Roanoke and 2 more59 min
Aug 11, 2:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKPatrick58 min
Aug 11, 2:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXJefferson43 min
Aug 11, 2:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, Page, Shenandoah, Warren38 min
Aug 11, 2:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXShenandoah46 min
Aug 11, 2:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXClarke, Fauquier, Loudoun, Rappahannock, Warren41 min
Aug 11, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington39 min
Aug 11, 2:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXGreene, Madison38 min
Aug 11, 2:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatLWXFauquier, Rappahannock39 min
Aug 11, 2:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHenry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, City of Martinsville67 min
Aug 11, 2:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick46 min
Aug 11, 3:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXFrederick, Washington45 min
Aug 11, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Loudoun, Rappahannock42 min
Aug 11, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg40 min
Aug 11, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHampshire, Hardy30 min
Aug 11, 3:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXShenandoah12 min
Aug 11, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Rappahannock50 min
Aug 11, 3:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, City of Charlottesville53 min
Aug 11, 3:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Franklin34 min
Aug 11, 3:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Montgomery48 min
Aug 11, 3:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Shenandoah, City of Winchester25 min
Aug 11, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Madison, Orange29 min
Aug 11, 4:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQLouisa43 min
Aug 11, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Howard, Montgomery39 min
Aug 11, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier39 min
Aug 11, 4:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Campbell, Pittsylvania36 min
Aug 11, 4:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery, Prince George's40 min
Aug 11, 4:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington41 min
Aug 11, 4:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPrince William, Stafford41 min
Aug 11, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQFluvanna, Goochland, Louisa48 min
Aug 11, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLWXMontgomery, Prince George's30 min
Aug 11, 4:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHalifax, Pittsylvania35 min
Aug 11, 5:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's44 min
Aug 11, 5:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Hanover, Louisa43 min
Aug 11, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSpotsylvania36 min
Aug 11, 5:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, Howard, City of Baltimore43 min
Aug 11, 5:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline, Hanover, Henrico, King and Queen, King William49 min
Aug 11, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil, Harford27 min
Aug 11, 6:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQChesterfield, Goochland, Henrico, Powhatan, City of Richmond44 min
Aug 11, 7:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatAKQChesterfield, Henrico, City of Richmond34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 553 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 20 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
553 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1301 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

577 
WWUS20 KWNS 111759
SEL5  
SPC WW 111759
DCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-120100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Maryland
  Much of central and northern Virginia
  The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM
  until 900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered pulse-severe storms will form through the
afternoon in a broken band east of the Blue Ridge, and storms will
drift eastward through this evening.  The strongest updrafts may
produce marginally severe hail, but the main threat will be
occasional wind damage with downbursts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest
of Baltimore MD to 5 miles west of Danville VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 423...WW 424...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27010.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 1:01 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Charles, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and 1 more89 min
Aug 11, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot6 hr
Aug 11, 3:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 9 more88 min
Aug 11, 6:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCecil91 min
Aug 11, 11:50 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Hancock, Ohio115 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.