Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382

July 17, 20217 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 17, 2021, 1:13 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2021, 1:13 PM EDT (17:13 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 157 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

114 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 1:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Howard46 min
Jul 17, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAlbemarle, Culpeper, Greene, Madison, Orange48 min
Jul 17, 1:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York42 min
Jul 17, 1:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXKings, Queens24 min
Jul 17, 1:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPCameron, Elk, McKean, Potter, Warren3 hr
Jul 17, 1:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren36 min
Jul 17, 2:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson, Union44 min
Jul 17, 2:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, Lebanon47 min
Jul 17, 2:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Spotsylvania41 min
Jul 17, 2:20 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson, Union3 hr
Jul 17, 2:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Warren39 min
Jul 17, 2:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster46 min
Jul 17, 2:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks39 min
Jul 17, 2:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford, City of Baltimore50 min
Jul 17, 2:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson, Union33 min
Jul 17, 2:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fauquier, Prince William, City of Manassas48 min
Jul 17, 2:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSchuylkill38 min
Jul 17, 2:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex, Somerset49 min
Jul 17, 2:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York34 min
Jul 17, 2:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Loudoun28 min
Jul 17, 2:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford, City of Baltimore31 min
Jul 17, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLebanon, Schuylkill43 min
Jul 17, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCambria, Clearfield, Somerset56 min
Jul 17, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIWarren39 min
Jul 17, 3:09 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIMiddlesex21 min
Jul 17, 3:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXOrange, Spotsylvania23 min
Jul 17, 3:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Loudoun, Prince William39 min
Jul 17, 3:10 PM EDTTornado WarningOKXRichmond19 min
Jul 17, 3:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster61 min
Jul 17, 3:17 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPLycoming, Tioga3 hr
Jul 17, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXEssex, Hudson, Union42 min
Jul 17, 3:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess53 min
Jul 17, 3:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard24 min
Jul 17, 3:24 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXUnion80 min
Jul 17, 3:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford, City of Baltimore63 min
Jul 17, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery45 min
Jul 17, 3:34 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXBaltimore, City of Baltimore2 hr
Jul 17, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery40 min
Jul 17, 3:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex24 min
Jul 17, 3:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clearfield23 min
Jul 17, 3:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXRichmond16 min
Jul 17, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, City of Baltimore46 min
Jul 17, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin55 min
Jul 17, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery36 min
Jul 17, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, City of Baltimore62 min
Jul 17, 4:45 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXBaltimore101 min
Jul 17, 4:46 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMBradford90 min
Jul 17, 4:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess, Ulster58 min
Jul 17, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Mifflin, Northumberland, Snyder, Union55 min
Jul 17, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Somerset50 min
Jul 17, 4:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMDelaware, Sullivan4 hr
Jul 17, 4:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Cortland, Tioga, Tompkins33 min
Jul 17, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClinton, Lycoming43 min
Jul 17, 5:14 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPLycoming, Sullivan3 hr
Jul 17, 5:19 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIHunterdon14 min
Jul 17, 5:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Washington40 min
Jul 17, 5:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome67 min
Jul 17, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMTioga, Tompkins27 min
Jul 17, 5:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIHunterdon6 hr
Jul 17, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster65 min
Jul 17, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Cortland47 min
Jul 17, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming62 min
Jul 17, 5:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren19 min
Jul 17, 5:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess4 hr
Jul 17, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne, Susquehanna, Wyoming55 min
Jul 17, 5:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Delaware, Otsego39 min
Jul 17, 5:42 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPAdams, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Perry111 min
Jul 17, 5:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Washington46 min
Jul 17, 5:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Lycoming, Montour and 6 more61 min
Jul 17, 5:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXRockingham40 min
Jul 17, 5:56 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPColumbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Lebanon, Lycoming and 7 more3 hr
Jul 17, 6:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Somerset43 min
Jul 17, 6:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, Shenandoah, Warren, City of Winchester42 min
Jul 17, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford, Susquehanna41 min
Jul 17, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, York36 min
Jul 17, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango31 min
Jul 17, 6:15 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMorris, Somerset5 hr
Jul 17, 6:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBerkeley, Jefferson29 min
Jul 17, 6:20 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMChenango, Otsego25 min
Jul 17, 6:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan28 min
Jul 17, 6:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford, Luzerne, Wyoming30 min
Jul 17, 6:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSullivan28 min
Jul 17, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Washington40 min
Jul 17, 6:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset51 min
Jul 17, 6:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware, Tioga36 min
Jul 17, 6:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York46 min
Jul 17, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick, Washington30 min
Jul 17, 6:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington39 min
Jul 17, 6:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Tioga34 min
Jul 17, 7:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Somerset44 min
Jul 17, 7:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery49 min
Jul 17, 7:23 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego2 hr
Jul 17, 7:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset49 min
Jul 17, 7:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, York56 min
Jul 17, 7:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Harford27 min
Jul 17, 7:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent46 min
Jul 17, 8:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Mercer, Monmouth45 min
Jul 17, 8:09 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMercer, Somerset4 hr
Jul 17, 8:12 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningALYDutchess3 hr
Jul 17, 8:27 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMOtsego77 min
Jul 17, 8:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester40 min
Jul 17, 8:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset54 min
Jul 17, 8:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYDutchess65 min
Jul 17, 8:41 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMSullivan113 min
Jul 17, 8:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester48 min
Jul 17, 9:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle48 min
Jul 17, 9:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICape May29 min
Jul 17, 9:36 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHINew Castle2 hr
Jul 17, 9:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Salem42 min
Jul 17, 10:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean54 min
Jul 17, 10:22 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBurlington, Monmouth, Ocean23 min
Jul 17, 10:38 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBurlington, Monmouth, Ocean16 min
Jul 17, 10:43 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean79 min
Jul 17, 10:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent50 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 538 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 37 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
538 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1337 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

604 
WWUS20 KWNS 171711
SEL2  
SPC WW 171711
CTZ000-DCZ000-DEZ000-MAZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ00
0-CWZ000-180300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Connecticut
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  western Massachusetts
  Maryland
  New Jersey
  southeast New York
  central and eastern Pennsylvania
  northern Virginia
  northeast West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify within the
destabilizing warm sector across a portion of the Middle Atlantic
and Northeast States this afternoon and evening. Mostly multicells
and some marginal supercell structures are expected with storms
evolving into lines and bowing segments capable of mainly scattered
wind damage.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast
of Binghamton NY to 50 miles south southwest of Washington DC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 17, 12:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle3 hr
Jul 17, 3:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle88 min
Jul 17, 4:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Castle97 min
Jul 17, 6:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle2 hr
Jul 17, 1:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmelia, Appomattox, Brunswick, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte and 18 more3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.