Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375

July 13, 202132 counties in New York; 51 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 13, 2021, 1:37 PM EDT for 32 counties in New York; 51 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 13, 2021, 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2021, 12:00 AM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 83 counties

Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

70 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 3:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Tompkins32 min
Jul 13, 3:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Armstrong, Butler51 min
Jul 13, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZForest, Mercer, Venango40 min
Jul 13, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSchuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, Yates24 min
Jul 13, 4:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Butler, Clarion, Venango49 min
Jul 13, 4:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Clarion, Indiana, Jefferson50 min
Jul 13, 4:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSomerset41 min
Jul 13, 4:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPWarren55 min
Jul 13, 4:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFChautauqua64 min
Jul 13, 4:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Butler, Clarion, Venango34 min
Jul 13, 4:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango43 min
Jul 13, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFOswego55 min
Jul 13, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana, Westmoreland40 min
Jul 13, 5:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Forest, Venango45 min
Jul 13, 5:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Jefferson52 min
Jul 13, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango48 min
Jul 13, 5:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFOswego45 min
Jul 13, 5:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPElk, McKean, Warren52 min
Jul 13, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana, Jefferson, Westmoreland50 min
Jul 13, 5:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie52 min
Jul 13, 5:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Somerset41 min
Jul 13, 5:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFLewis, Oswego64 min
Jul 13, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida17 min
Jul 13, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZAllegheny, Fayette, Greene, Washington, Westmoreland28 min
Jul 13, 5:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Potter56 min
Jul 13, 5:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCameron, Clearfield, Elk67 min
Jul 13, 5:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming63 min
Jul 13, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield59 min
Jul 13, 6:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClearfield, Elk38 min
Jul 13, 6:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana, Jefferson, Westmoreland37 min
Jul 13, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis53 min
Jul 13, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Westmoreland31 min
Jul 13, 6:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans41 min
Jul 13, 6:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPMcKean, Potter41 min
Jul 13, 6:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSomerset37 min
Jul 13, 6:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClinton, Potter, Tioga47 min
Jul 13, 6:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZArmstrong, Indiana, Westmoreland32 min
Jul 13, 6:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBlair, Centre, Clearfield44 min
Jul 13, 6:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBlair, Huntingdon44 min
Jul 13, 6:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFNiagara, Orleans50 min
Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPPotter61 min
Jul 13, 7:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton44 min
Jul 13, 7:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFGenesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wayne60 min
Jul 13, 7:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Huntingdon, Mifflin44 min
Jul 13, 7:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Tioga64 min
Jul 13, 7:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSteuben48 min
Jul 13, 7:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClinton, Lycoming, Tioga61 min
Jul 13, 7:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming, Tioga2 hr
Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton, Mifflin, Snyder, Union46 min
Jul 13, 8:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Northumberland, Union43 min
Jul 13, 8:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tompkins, Yates48 min
Jul 13, 8:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCayuga, Oswego, Wayne55 min
Jul 13, 8:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford41 min
Jul 13, 8:51 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPLycoming, Montour, Northumberland24 min
Jul 13, 8:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Sullivan61 min
Jul 13, 9:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Cortland, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins59 min
Jul 13, 9:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCayuga, Wayne27 min
Jul 13, 9:06 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming, Sullivan, Tioga3 hr
Jul 13, 9:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chemung, Cortland, Schuyler, Tioga, Tompkins65 min
Jul 13, 9:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego65 min
Jul 13, 9:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClinton, Lycoming, Northumberland, Snyder, Union60 min
Jul 13, 9:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Tioga43 min
Jul 13, 9:36 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMTioga24 min
Jul 13, 9:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga63 min
Jul 13, 10:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison, Otsego and 2 more53 min
Jul 13, 10:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego73 min
Jul 13, 10:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, Union57 min
Jul 13, 10:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida24 min
Jul 13, 10:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Delaware, Madison, Oneida, Otsego63 min
Jul 13, 11:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Pike, Wayne25 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 610 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-07-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 56 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
610 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
907 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

230 
WWUS20 KWNS 131735
SEL5  
SPC WW 131735
NYZ000-PAZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-140300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  western and central New York
  Pennsylvania
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop across Pennsylvania and New
York into the afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will
become capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts
and possibly some hail. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest
of Syracuse NY to 25 miles west of Hagerstown MD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 12:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 23 more87 min
Jul 13, 4:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 25 more113 min
Jul 13, 6:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango and 20 more91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.