Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 13, 2021, 1:37 PM EDT for 32 counties in New York; 51 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2021, 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2021, 12:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 83 counties
Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
70 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 3:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Chemung, Schuyler, Tompkins | 32 min |
| Jul 13, 3:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Allegheny, Armstrong, Butler | 51 min |
| Jul 13, 4:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Forest, Mercer, Venango | 40 min |
| Jul 13, 4:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, Yates | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 4:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Armstrong, Butler, Clarion, Venango | 49 min |
| Jul 13, 4:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Armstrong, Clarion, Indiana, Jefferson | 50 min |
| Jul 13, 4:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Somerset | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 4:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Warren | 55 min |
| Jul 13, 4:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 4:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Armstrong, Butler, Clarion, Venango | 34 min |
| Jul 13, 4:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Armstrong, Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango | 43 min |
| Jul 13, 4:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Oswego | 55 min |
| Jul 13, 4:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Indiana, Westmoreland | 40 min |
| Jul 13, 5:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Clarion, Forest, Venango | 45 min |
| Jul 13, 5:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Clarion, Jefferson | 52 min |
| Jul 13, 5:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango | 48 min |
| Jul 13, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Oswego | 45 min |
| Jul 13, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Elk, McKean, Warren | 52 min |
| Jul 13, 5:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Indiana, Jefferson, Westmoreland | 50 min |
| Jul 13, 5:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie | 52 min |
| Jul 13, 5:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Bedford, Somerset | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 5:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis, Oswego | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 5:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Oneida | 17 min |
| Jul 13, 5:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Allegheny, Fayette, Greene, Washington, Westmoreland | 28 min |
| Jul 13, 5:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Potter | 56 min |
| Jul 13, 5:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cameron, Clearfield, Elk | 67 min |
| Jul 13, 5:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 63 min |
| Jul 13, 6:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield | 59 min |
| Jul 13, 6:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 38 min |
| Jul 13, 6:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Indiana, Jefferson, Westmoreland | 37 min |
| Jul 13, 6:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis | 53 min |
| Jul 13, 6:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Fayette, Westmoreland | 31 min |
| Jul 13, 6:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 6:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | McKean, Potter | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Somerset | 37 min |
| Jul 13, 6:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clinton, Potter, Tioga | 47 min |
| Jul 13, 6:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PBZ | Armstrong, Indiana, Westmoreland | 32 min |
| Jul 13, 6:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Blair, Centre, Clearfield | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 6:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Blair, Huntingdon | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 6:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Niagara, Orleans | 50 min |
| Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Potter | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 7:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre, Clinton | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 7:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wayne | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 7:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre, Huntingdon, Mifflin | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 7:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Tioga | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 7:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Steuben | 48 min |
| Jul 13, 7:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clinton, Lycoming, Tioga | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 7:55 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Tioga | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre, Clinton, Mifflin, Snyder, Union | 46 min |
| Jul 13, 8:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Northumberland, Union | 43 min |
| Jul 13, 8:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Chemung, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tompkins, Yates | 48 min |
| Jul 13, 8:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Oswego, Wayne | 55 min |
| Jul 13, 8:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Bradford | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 8:51 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 8:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Sullivan | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 9:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Cayuga, Cortland, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins | 59 min |
| Jul 13, 9:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Wayne | 27 min |
| Jul 13, 9:06 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga | 3 hr |
| Jul 13, 9:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Broome, Chemung, Cortland, Schuyler, Tioga, Tompkins | 65 min |
| Jul 13, 9:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 65 min |
| Jul 13, 9:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clinton, Lycoming, Northumberland, Snyder, Union | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 9:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Broome, Tioga | 43 min |
| Jul 13, 9:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BGM | Tioga | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 9:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Cortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga | 63 min |
| Jul 13, 10:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison, Otsego and 2 more | 53 min |
| Jul 13, 10:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 73 min |
| Jul 13, 10:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, Snyder, Union | 57 min |
| Jul 13, 10:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Oneida | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 10:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Chenango, Delaware, Madison, Oneida, Otsego | 63 min |
| Jul 13, 11:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Lackawanna, Pike, Wayne | 25 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 610 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 907 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
230 WWUS20 KWNS 131735 SEL5 SPC WW 131735 NYZ000-PAZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-140300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of western and central New York Pennsylvania Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop across Pennsylvania and New York into the afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will become capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Syracuse NY to 25 miles west of Hagerstown MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Dial
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 12:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 23 more | 87 min |
| Jul 13, 4:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 25 more | 113 min |
| Jul 13, 6:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango and 20 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.