Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 14, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT for Curry County, Quay County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 25 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT (21:30 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 31 counties
Curry County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 3:51 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Curry, De Baca, Quay, Roosevelt | 39 min |
| May 14, 4:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Bailey, Castro, Parmer | 66 min |
| May 14, 4:27 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Deaf Smith, Oldham | 63 min |
| May 14, 4:31 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Hartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter | 59 min |
| May 14, 4:48 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Cimarron | 57 min |
| May 14, 4:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Cimarron | 38 min |
| May 14, 4:55 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Deaf Smith, Oldham, Potter, Randall | 65 min |
| May 14, 4:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Dallam, Hartley, Sherman | 61 min |
| May 14, 5:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Castro, Parmer | 66 min |
| May 14, 5:34 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Dallam, Hartley, Moore, Potter, Sherman | 56 min |
| May 14, 5:52 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Parmer | 23 min |
| May 14, 6:06 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong, Carson, Deaf Smith, Oldham, Potter, Randall | 54 min |
| May 14, 6:10 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts | 95 min |
| May 14, 6:25 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Bailey, Lamb | 65 min |
| May 14, 6:55 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong, Carson, Potter, Randall | 65 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 51 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -519 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 807 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 364 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 385 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
432
WWUS20 KWNS 142125
SEL9
SPC WW 142125
NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East-central New Mexico
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Initial discrete cells across east-central New Mexico
should consolidate into a modestly organized cluster with severe
wind and hail as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Guymon OK to 50 miles west southwest of Plainview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 4:17 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Eddy, Lea | 88 min |
| May 14, 5:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Deaf Smith, Hale, Lamb and 3 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.