Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169

May 14, 2021Curry County, Quay County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 25 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 14, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT for Curry County, Quay County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 25 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT (21:30 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 31 counties

Curry County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 3:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQCurry, De Baca, Quay, Roosevelt39 min
May 14, 4:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBailey, Castro, Parmer66 min
May 14, 4:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADeaf Smith, Oldham63 min
May 14, 4:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAHartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter59 min
May 14, 4:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACimarron57 min
May 14, 4:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACimarron38 min
May 14, 4:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADeaf Smith, Oldham, Potter, Randall65 min
May 14, 4:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley, Sherman61 min
May 14, 5:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCastro, Parmer66 min
May 14, 5:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley, Moore, Potter, Sherman56 min
May 14, 5:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBParmer23 min
May 14, 6:06 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Carson, Deaf Smith, Oldham, Potter, Randall54 min
May 14, 6:10 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hansford, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts95 min
May 14, 6:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBailey, Lamb65 min
May 14, 6:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Carson, Potter, Randall65 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 51 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 364 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
51 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-519 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
364 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
385 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

432 
WWUS20 KWNS 142125
SEL9  
SPC WW 142125
NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East-central New Mexico
  Oklahoma Panhandle
  Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Initial discrete cells across east-central New Mexico
should consolidate into a modestly organized cluster with severe
wind and hail as the primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Guymon OK to 50 miles west southwest of Plainview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 4:17 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEddy, Lea88 min
May 14, 5:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Carson, Castro, Deaf Smith, Hale, Lamb and 3 more84 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.