Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 613

May 14, 20219 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 6:06 PM CDT for 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2021, 6:06 PM CDT (23:06 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 169

Counties Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hale County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 51 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 364 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
51 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-519 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
364 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
385 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

818 
ACUS11 KWNS 142306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142306 
TXZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

Areas affected...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

Valid 142306Z - 150030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind threat should increase between now and 0030Z,
as ongoing strong storms consolidate and move eastward. A few
significant gusts (65 kt or greater) will be possible.

DISCUSSION...At 23Z, numerous strong/potentially severe storms are
ongoing across the western TX Panhandle. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized
structures, with a short-term risk of locally severe downbursts and
perhaps some hail. 

With numerous strong storms ongoing upstream of a relatively warm
and well-mixed environment, some upscale growth is expected within
the next hour as cold pools begin to consolidate. As this occurs, a
swath of potentially more widespread severe wind gusts could develop
into the central TX Panhandle between now and 0030Z, in conjunction
with an eastward-moving cluster that may evolve into a loosely
organized MCS. A few significant (65 kt or greater) gusts will be
possible depending on how well any upscale growth can organize.

..Dean.. 05/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34360276 35060261 35730241 35760153 35340131 34580137
            34120156 33970223 34070274 34360276

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 4:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Dallam and 19 more7 hr
May 14, 5:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Presidio, Reeves and 2 more88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.