Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 612
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 4:17 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 4:17 PM MDT (22:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 201 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 129 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -450 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 954 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 146 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
509
ACUS11 KWNS 142218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142217
TXZ000-NMZ000-142345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...Southeast NM...West TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142217Z - 142345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of localized strong
wind gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible into early
evening.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of southeast NM into west TX as of 2215Z. Strong heating
and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of
generally 500-1000 J/kg, while low-level southeasterly flow veering
to modest westerlies aloft is resulting in effective shear of 30-35
kt across the region, which will support a few strong multicells and
perhaps a transient supercell with the most intense updrafts. While
large-scale ascent is generally weak across the region, continued
development and intensification will be possible near terrain-driven
circulations and in the vicinity of a weak surface trough across
southeast NM.
The most likely hazard is isolated severe gusts, with large
temperature/dewpoint spreads and DCAPE across the region, though
some instances of hail will also be possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. The threat will likely persist into the early evening
before diminishing due to the onset of diurnal
cooling/stabilization.
..Dean/Grams.. 05/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30050470 30480470 32420497 33240485 33240423 33150341
32280309 31410295 30760293 29920307 28990317 29130371
29580449 30000473 30050470SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 3:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Curry, Quay, Roosevelt | 7 hr |
| May 14, 5:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Castro, Deaf Smith, Hale, Lamb and 3 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.