Mesoscale Discussion 964

Issued

Jun 14, 2021, 11:31 AM EDT (15:31 UTC)

Expired

Jun 14, 2021, 1:00 PM EDT

In force

89 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269Jun 14, 11:45 AM EDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270Jun 14, 2:05 PM EDT

041 
ACUS11 KWNS 141531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141531 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern
WV...western/central PA...and western MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 141531Z - 141700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and severe hail may occur as storms
increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will
continue to move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic this
afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature is
supporting an area of thunderstorms along the shore of Lake Erie and
into northwestern PA. The airmass across eastern OH into
western/central PA and vicinity ahead of the front is expected to
gradually destabilize through the early afternoon as diurnal heating
continues. The low-level airmass is not overly moist, with recent
surface observations showing surface dewpoints ranging from the mid
50s to low 60s. Still, the development of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
appears probable by peak afternoon heating. Weak low-level winds
quickly strengthen at mid levels, and 40-50 kt of effective bulk
shear will support organized updrafts. A mix of supercells and
multicells along the front should pose a threat for both isolated
severe hail and scattered damaging winds as convection spreads
east-southeastward. Watch issuance will likely be needed as storms
are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the early
afternoon.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   40898109 41148051 41607948 41577849 41437714 41087698
            40597720 39847782 39447885 39277982 39598091 40108147
            40898109

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.