Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 972
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2021, 6:18 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2021, 6:18 PM EDT (22:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2021, 8:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 270
All 35 counties
New Castle County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 687 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
130
ACUS11 KWNS 142219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142218
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-150015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...
Valid 142218Z - 150015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.
SUMMARY...The environment ahead of an approaching cold front will
remain supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms across WW 270
over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis of observations across the
Mid-Atlantic show a cold front continuing to push eastward across
central to eastern PA. Ahead of this front temperatures remain in
the 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This warm/moist
boundary layer is supporting upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with
limited inhibition per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Recent GOES
visible imagery shows agitated cumulus and a few convective towers
across eastern PA into northern NJ, which support the thermodynamic
estimates. Effective bulk shear values near 50 knots will help
organized any stronger updrafts that develop along the front, and
shear/boundary orientations suggest a mixture of embedded discrete
and linear clusters that will pose a hail/damaging wind threat over
the next few hours.
..Moore.. 06/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40227660 40487610 40847528 41207483 41277422 41007383
40517378 39967394 39447420 39257470 39327523 39517580
39837646 40227660SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | New Castle | 9 hr |
| Jun 14, 6:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 2 hr |
| Jun 14, 7:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 6 hr |
| Jun 14, 1:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 14, 2:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Fulton, Greene, Madison and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 14, 11:31 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 22 more | 89 min |
| Jun 14, 11:46 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 14, 3:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fayette, Greene, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.