Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 966
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2021, 2:48 PM EDT for 12 counties in New York; Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2021, 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2021, 5:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Susquehanna County, PA
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 687 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
561
ACUS11 KWNS 141848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141848
NYZ000-PAZ000-142115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Areas affected...Portions of far northern PA into southern/central
NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141848Z - 142115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of isolated wind/hail potential may
exist this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Some breaks in the low/mid-level clouds have occurred
ahead of a cold front across far northern PA into parts of
southern/central NY. Although low-level moisture remains fairly
limited across this region, about 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE is present
per recent mesoanalysis estimates. The stronger winds aloft
associated with a mid-level shortwave trough should remain generally
displaced to the south across PA, but around 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear should still support modestly organized updrafts. Any storms
that can form along or just ahead of the eastward-moving cold front
may be capable of producing strong/gusty winds and perhaps some
marginally severe hail. The generally weak instability should limit
the overall severe threat, and storms will likely weaken with
eastward extent in NY given persistent low/mid-level cloudiness and
a quick decrease in boundary-layer instability.
..Gleason/Grams.. 06/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 41747593 42417601 43157582 43347519 43257440 43077397
42547398 41867439 41597478 41747593SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 6:18 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond | 117 min |
| Jun 14, 11:31 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 22 more | 89 min |
| Jun 14, 11:46 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 14, 1:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Columbia and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 14, 2:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Columbia and 22 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 14, 3:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fayette, Greene, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.