Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 974

June 14, 2021Allegany County, Garrett County, Maryland; Frederick County, Shenandoah County, City of Winchester, Virginia; 20 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2021, 7:37 PM EDT for Allegany County, Garrett County, Maryland; Frederick County, Shenandoah County, City of Winchester, Virginia; 20 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 14, 2021, 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2021, 9:30 PM EDT
In force
113 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 271...272
All 25 counties

Allegany County, MD, Garrett County, MD, City of Winchester, VA, Frederick County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Preston County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wirt County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1684 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

418 
ACUS11 KWNS 142338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142337 
MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Areas affected...Northern West Virginia...western Maryland and far
northwest Virginia.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271...272...

Valid 142337Z - 150130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271, 272
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 271 as well as WW
272. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard, but a
few instances of severe hail remain possible. Given coming watch
expirations in the next 1-2 hours, local extensions may be needed
before storms exit the watch areas.

DISCUSSION...Several damaging wind reports, as well as a few
instances of quarter-sized hail, have been noted with a broken line
of storms across northern WV over the past 1-2 hours. Although these
storms have primarily been discrete to semi-discrete, regional
reflectivity and velocity data suggests that at least one or two
cells are beginning to develop organized outflows and take on more
linear characteristics. This is the expected evolution given storm
motion and deep-layer shear orientation to the initiating cold
front, and may support an increasing damaging wind threat in the
coming hours (though isolated severe hail will remain possible). One
mitigating factor is reduced instability immediately ahead of these
storms as they move across the higher terrain of northeast WV where
temperatures and dewpoints are cooler compared to surrounding
locations. However, re-intensification is possible as storms
transverse the terrain and move into a more unstable air mass across
northwest VA (see MCD 973 for details).

..Moore.. 06/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39158144 39438056 39657966 39717896 39677797 39267789
            38877830 38577863 38497925 38658006 38908095 39018155
            39158144

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 14, 11:31 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett89 min
Jun 14, 3:55 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett, Washington65 min
Jun 14, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Garrett, Washington6 hr
Jun 14, 6:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more2 hr
Jun 14, 7:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 15 more6 hr
Jun 14, 11:46 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooke, Hancock, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio and 2 more6 hr
Jun 14, 3:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Marshall, Ohio95 min
Jun 14, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarbour, Doddridge, Harrison, Lewis, Marion, Marshall and 11 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.