Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 956

June 13, 202131 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2021, 4:56 PM EDT for 31 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2021, 4:56 PM EDT (20:56 UTC)
Expired
Jun 13, 2021, 6:30 PM EDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 266
All 31 counties

Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Elk County, PA, Forest County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2252 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

470 
ACUS11 KWNS 132056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132056 
PAZ000-NYZ000-132230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Areas affected...parts of northern into central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266...

Valid 132056Z - 132230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0266. Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary
threats. The severe threat should persist through sunset.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters and a couple of brief
supercells, evident via KCCX and MRMS mosaic radar data, have
developed across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0266 with a history of 1
inch diameter hail stones. Given the modest (i.e. 35+ kts) effective
bulk shear and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place, multicells and
supercells are expected to persist into the evening hours. Given
15-20 F temperature/dewpoint spreads and 6.5-7.5 C/km low-level
lapse rates, damaging gusts may occur with the more intense
multicellular clusters (especially where cold pool mergers occur)
while the large hail threat will continue with any of the more
sustained supercell structures. By sunset, the boundary layer will
begin to decouple, and the severe threat should gradually diminish
thereafter.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40067786 40247887 40297906 41627961 41707961 41797961
            41837961 42007961 42007918 42007692 42007683 42007675
            42007548 41487544 41267544 41017573 40067786 40067786
            40067786

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 12:13 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Butler, Cambria and 8 more2 hr
Jun 13, 12:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 9 more7 hr
Jun 13, 2:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlair, Bradford, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield and 20 more2 hr
Jun 13, 3:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 10 more94 min
Jun 13, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlair, Bradford, Cambria, Cameron, Centre, Clearfield and 20 more7 hr
Jun 13, 7:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlair, Bradford, Cambria, Cameron, Carbon, Centre and 20 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.