Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 881
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2021, 4:53 AM CDT for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 8, 2021, 4:53 AM CDT (09:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 8, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Bandera County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Comal County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Medina County, TX, Mills County, TX, San Saba County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 249 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 488 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -212 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1123 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
923
ACUS11 KWNS 080954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080953
TXZ000-081200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 080953Z - 081200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A gradually weakening cluster of storms may approach the
Austin and San Antonio areas by 8-9 AM, accompanied by strong
surface gusts perhaps at least approaching severe limits.
DISCUSSION...A relatively compact but fairly strong convectively
driven surface cold pool (with 2-4 mb 2 hourly surface pressure
rises and 50+ kt rear inflow within the lowest kilometer AGL) has
been maintained across and south/southeast of the Abilene vicinity,
with a forward propagation up to 40 kt. While a modest and
gradually veering, south to southwesterly, low-level jet has been
focusing strongest renewed thunderstorm development on the
southern/southwestern flank of the cold pool, this forcing appears
likely to gradually weaken through daybreak. However, given the
seasonably moist boundary layer, characterized by large CAPE on the
order of 2000-4000 J/kg, which extends far downstream, coupled with
the current strength of the cold pool, it is possible that
convection may be slow to weaken. And it could approach the Austin
and Greater San Antonio areas by 13-14Z.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31609919 31609871 31709832 31569818 29739769 29279927
30579956 31479938 31609919SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 7:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 7, 9:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 7 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 7, 10:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd and 10 more | 92 min |
| Jun 8, 1:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Kent, King and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 8, 10:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Rusk | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.