Mesoscale Discussion 878

Issued

Jun 8, 2021, 1:11 AM CDT (06:11 UTC)

Expired

Jun 8, 2021, 3:15 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 245

Counties Baylor County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Young County, TX

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

150 
ACUS11 KWNS 080611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080611 
TXZ000-080815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into Big Country of
western north Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

Valid 080611Z - 080815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts remain possible with a southeastward
advancing cluster of thunderstorms into the 3-5 AM time frame. 
There remains potential for some re-intensification of storms,
particularly with activity approaching the Abilene area during the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...There has been some recent weakening (evident in MRMS
CAPPI data) of the more intense convection on the leading edge of
the southeastward propagating cold pool (still including 2-4+ mb 2
hourly surface pressure rises in 05Z surface obs).  However, based
on current 30 kt forward propagation, 10-20 south to southeasterly
ambient near surface winds are contributing to strong inflow of
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content characterized by
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.  This extends along a corridor where
stronger daytime differential surface heating took place, near the
edge of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
across the higher plains, as far east-southeast as the Mineral Wells
and Stephenville areas.  Although mid-level inhibition may be
increasing, associated with continued gradual boundary-layer
cooling, there still appears lingering potential for renewed storm
intensification into the 08-10Z time frame.  As the modest southerly
low-level over the Texas South Plains gradually veers, this may
become focused near/above the southern flank of the cold pool and
approach the Abilene vicinity.

..Kerr.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34040010 33799925 32779830 32309956 32930117 33480111
            33660044 34040010

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.